OT Sold It!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Here's a link that is interesting.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6097513 /
Roy


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If all this comes to pass as hoped, the big remaining factor will be getting the dollar back in line with the euro and gaining value. Hopefully the money made available in the fourth quarter of last year will start to be returned to the Fed, and there will be a shift away from oil speculation.
--
Max

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Max Dodge wrote:

It already has improved slightly last time I checked. One of the biggest problems is the rising cost of oil which is always bought in US$'s.
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While the rising price of oil is one of the biggest problems, it is further increased by falling home values and stagnent income levels.
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Oil prices are not affected by home values at all. Stagnant income levels do not have an effect on oil prices either.
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Max

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I was talking about what compounds the problem or rising oil prices, not what effects the price itself.
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God only knows what you are talking about, since you haven't referred to a solid bit of proof for anything you've claimed.
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TBone wrote:

Home prices have simply returned to where they should be. It's a market correction after a massivly over inflated bubble. My home is down $75K from where it was 2 years ago. That puts it slightly above where it was 3 years ago.
Please state where you obtained your data proving stagnant income levels .
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That is correct.

Once again, that is correct.

Yes, but you didn't buy it 2 year ago when it was worth $75K more than it is now and many people did and are now stuck with negative equity and high mortgage payments.

You are kidding, right?!?!?! Just about every financial agency has made this claim.
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Sadly, much of the problem is not comming from speculation.
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--
Max

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This is your most intelligent post in this entire thread.
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"Max Dodge" < snipped-for-privacy@verizon.net> wrote in message
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Proof?
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Speculators do not normally start trends, they follow them and there simply not enough of them to cause the price to rise like this. The real problem is in demand. Do to our idiotic globalization, we have awakened a few sleeping giants such as India and China. Now many of the people in these countries can afford and want things such as cars and they require fuel. Then when you add in the fact that these two countries as well as a few others subsidize the cost of fuel, the soaring cost of oil has no effect on the citizens of these countries and the demand continues. If it were primarily caused by pure speculation, the last rise in oil supplies should have sent the price of oil down but instead, it not only held, it went up. Now the word on the street is that many of these countries will end their subsidies of fuel prices very soon as well as China after the Olympics which will hopefully return the price of oil to a more managable level. That is until the moronic population of the US gets another bug up there ass and begins buying oversized gas guzzeling beasts again and since we have already done this very thing twice before, I see no reason why it will not happen again.
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Well, thats where you start to be wrong. There have always been enough speculators, since ANYONE with money can be a speculator, especially now that the PC can get you on the world markets. So we've got the numbers. Next, with the dollar down the way it is, a lot of normally conservative overseas investment funds have extra cash. Commodities like oil are a great way to hedge against the falling dollar. Hell, if you doubt me, take a look at any AP news story about oil prices. There is ALWAYS a short paragraph explaining this. Thus, we also have the cash.
Numbers of investors with extra cash to invest, and they want to protect themselves against the falling dollar. Oil is the way to do it.

The demand currently is not any more than it was this time last year, according to many sources, including this one:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t17.xls
If you look, U.S. demand falls slightly over the past year. Also, we're using about 25% of the oil, compared to some that say we use 33%. Another interesting note, the Europeans use 75% as much as we do, yet have roughly 50% of the population and area.
This site: http://omrpublic.iea.org /
Suggests that: "Global oil product demand has been lowered for both 2007 and 2008, to 85.8 mb/d and 86.8 mb/d respectively. Slower economic growth, high prices and 2006 baseline adjustments suggest that OECD oil demand will contract for the third successive year in 2008. Non-OECD demand growth in 2008, led by China and the Middle East, remains strong at 3.7% or 1.4 mb/d, leaving growth for the world as a whole at 1.2% (+1.0 mb/d)."
Demand appears to be dropping, even with China using more. True this is due to prices, but the prices are driving demand down, rather than demand driving prices up.

Our "idiotic globalization" was/is driven by two things: Capitalism, and humanitarianism. We want cheaper goods, but we don't want the them made in sweatshops.

Thats true. But, as noted above, worldwide demand is on a downward trend.

Actually, your statement above should read:
Since it was primarily caused by pure speculation, the last rise in oil supplies should have sent the price of oil down but instead, it not only held, it went up.
What you seem to have missed is, you note that supplies have gone up. You also note that the normal result is prices will go down. You further note they did not. You FAILED to note that the reason is exactly what you discarded: speculation.

This may have an effect, but the primary reason why we have high prices is because of the low value of the dollar. This can be directly attributed to the Fed flooding the market with money to keep Wall Street Banks solvent. The problem is this: If the Fed had not flooded the market, then more banks would have failed, dumping more people out of work, causing a huge ripple effect on the world economy. Instead, we average Joes get to suffer through the results of greedy bankers that made stupid decisions and used questionable lending (120% equity loans on a home??) practices.

Sure, it'll happen again and again. No big deal, thats economics 101.
But the real question here is this: Where is your proof that speculation has nothing to do with the price of oil? I've shown proof of world demand going down. I've also shown proof that the dollar is weak, and told you that you can find proof of the connection in any AP news story on oil.
Now, again, Where is your proof that its a simple demand problem?
--
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Well, thats where you start to be wrong. There have always been enough speculators, since ANYONE with money can be a speculator, especially now that the PC can get you on the world markets. So we've got the numbers. Next, with the dollar down the way it is, a lot of normally conservative overseas investment funds have extra cash. Commodities like oil are a great way to hedge against the falling dollar. Hell, if you doubt me, take a look at any AP news story about oil prices. There is ALWAYS a short paragraph explaining this. Thus, we also have the cash.
Numbers of investors with extra cash to invest, and they want to protect themselves against the falling dollar. Oil is the way to do it.

The demand currently is not any more than it was this time last year, according to many sources, including this one:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t17.xls
If you look, U.S. demand falls slightly over the past year. Also, we're using about 25% of the oil, compared to some that say we use 33%. Another interesting note, the Europeans use 75% as much as we do, yet have roughly 50% of the population and area.
This site: http://omrpublic.iea.org /
Suggests that: "Global oil product demand has been lowered for both 2007 and 2008, to 85.8 mb/d and 86.8 mb/d respectively. Slower economic growth, high prices and 2006 baseline adjustments suggest that OECD oil demand will contract for the third successive year in 2008. Non-OECD demand growth in 2008, led by China and the Middle East, remains strong at 3.7% or 1.4 mb/d, leaving growth for the world as a whole at 1.2% (+1.0 mb/d)."
Demand appears to be dropping, even with China using more. True this is due to prices, but the prices are driving demand down, rather than demand driving prices up.

Our "idiotic globalization" was/is driven by two things: Capitalism, and humanitarianism. We want cheaper goods, but we don't want the them made in sweatshops.

Thats true. But, as noted above, worldwide demand is on a downward trend.

Actually, your statement above should read:
Since it was primarily caused by pure speculation, the last rise in oil supplies should have sent the price of oil down but instead, it not only held, it went up.
What you seem to have missed is, you note that supplies have gone up. You also note that the normal result is prices will go down. You further note they did not. You FAILED to note that the reason is exactly what you discarded: speculation.

This may have an effect, but the primary reason why we have high prices is because of the low value of the dollar. This can be directly attributed to the Fed flooding the market with money to keep Wall Street Banks solvent. The problem is this: If the Fed had not flooded the market, then more banks would have failed, dumping more people out of work, causing a huge ripple effect on the world economy. Instead, we average Joes get to suffer through the results of greedy bankers that made stupid decisions and used questionable lending (120% equity loans on a home??) practices.

Sure, it'll happen again and again. No big deal, thats economics 101.
But the real question here is this: Where is your proof that speculation has nothing to do with the price of oil? I've shown proof of world demand going down. I've also shown proof that the dollar is weak, and told you that you can find proof of the connection in any AP news story on oil.
Now, again, Where is your proof that its a simple demand problem?
--
Max

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Tbone, you need to read this:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080524/ap_on_bi_ge/money_in_the_tank ;_ylt=Ap8CwbVKe5VKDOLOWbZp7r6s0NUE
Take note of the paragraphs that say:

Buying the current July crude oil futures contract means you're buying oil that will be delivered by the end of July. But most investors who trade futures have no intention of ever accepting the underlying oil: Like stock investors who frequently buy and sell their holdings, they're simply betting that prices will rise or fall.
Of late, on the Nymex, oil futures have been rising.
Why? Blame the falling dollar. Oil is priced in U.S. dollars, and the weaker the dollar gets, the more attractive dollar-denominated oil contracts are to foreign investors - or any investor looking for a safe haven in the turbulent stock market.
The rush of buyers keeps pushing oil futures to a series of new records, and the rest of the energy complex, including gasoline futures, has followed. That pushes up the price of gas that goes into your tank. <<
Or will you now claim that AP News is flawed and has no accuracy to their stories?
--
Max

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Roy wrote:

Interesting but the Democrats will continue to tell us how bad everything is with their doom and gloom stories.
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WTF Miles!!!! You continue to attempt to turn every friggin thread into a political debate. With Bush and his policies as your standard bearer, I'd think you'd give it a rest.
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On Sat, 17 May 2008 11:57:12 -0400, Roy wrote:

Ah Roy, Let Miles and Tom have their fun...
We'll just start another thread and talk about Jeeps and Guns, how bout that buddy?
heck maybe we could even take a good jab at the Bunny for something *cheezy grin*
--
Chris

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