OT Sold It!!!!!!!!!!!!

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On Sun, 11 May 2008 14:52:49 -0400, Roy wrote:

Not to mention that as soon as your unemployment insurance runs out you are no longer counted as part of the unemployed for these figures they keep touting. Seriously I work in manufacturing and a lot of my friends work for other plants, There's not a single one of us that's NOT worried about another plant closure because ALL of our COMPANIES are/have been closing plants.
One of the YKK guys told me he doesn't think the zipper plant will be here for more than another 5 years........
now what does that tell you?
--
Chris

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Christopher D. Thompson wrote:

Go look up whats used in figuring unemployment stats. You think its all about those on unemployment insurance? Besides, these figures are the exact same ones used during the 90's when everyone said how great things were...stats only used when they support your view.
I work in heavy manufacturing and business is doing very well. Breaking records every month. Outlook appears to predict a flattening trend but certainly not bad at all.
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Velcro is kicking ass?
Seriously, I know the economy has slowed, but we're not seeing the disastrous things like 10% unemployment, and double digit inflation that marked the 1980's as a recession. The economy is doing fine. Its down, but thats part of the economic cycle.
--
Max

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, he is not entitled to his own
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Sorry to burst your bubble Max, but you are incorrect. You have heard of the current recession, right?? As for the unemployment numbers, they are completely bogus at this point in time as they are based on assumptions that have not been valid for years.
--
If at first you don't succeed, you're not cut out for skydiving



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Tbone, the numbers I used compared two "bogus" sets, according to you. As such, BOTH sets are subject to the same inaccuracies. Therefore, the nearly 10% unemployment of 1982 an 1983 STILL are double what they are now.
The inflation rates are not subject to your claimed inaccuracies, and we still haven't hit the nearly 15% of the early 1980's.
The "current recession" is subject to much debate. Recession implies that the economy is shrinking. Currently the economy is NOT shrinking, it simply isn't growing at the rate which it has the past several years. If you have studied history or economics, you know that economic growth cannot continue unabated or rampant inflation follows. Usually something intervenes, such as a "readjustment". Such is exactly the case this time.
Believe what you'd like, but the facts speak for themselves. The economy showed about 1% growth in the first quarter, unemployment is hovering around 5%, and inflation is around 6%. None of these are anywhere near as bad as the early 80's.
--
Max

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, he is not entitled to his own
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Just because the number is doubled doesn't mean that the number of people were doubled and there is no way to know how accurate this number even is. Times are very different now and the assumptions used to create this number are far more invalid now then they were 20 + years ago. They are based on people in the work force employed long enough to collect unemployment insurance and if a person doesn't find a job by the time it runs out, they are determined to be no longer looking for work and are no longer included in that number. I wonder how many people were removed from the counted work force during the crash at the beginning of Bush's first term that were never added back.

The difference is then it was inflation and now it is stagflation which is far worse.

Bullshit. The economy was hardly raging at any time during the Bush term and much of that was due to the housing bubble and the recovery of the crash in 2001.

You are comparing apples to cars. The growth in the economy can be and usually is fudged to make it look better than it really is unless it really is good and even then.... Until another census is taken, nobody has any idea how accurate those unemployment numbers really are and that number also doesn't take into account the number of people who lost a job and were forced to take another one at half of their previous pay. Inflation isn't as big of an issue as stagflation which we are currently dealing with. The biggest indicator of the weakness in the economy is the commodities markets. Even with reports of excesses like in oil, the price not only doesn't go down as they should, they set new records which shows that the people in the know see how bad things really are and keep putting their money where they feel it is safest, regardless of reports.
--
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TBone wrote:

You really believe unemployment rates are computed mostly from unemployment insurance tallies??? Sigh....it has little to do with it.
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Sorry Miles, but that is how it is adjusted and if you think different, post some proof for a change.
--
If at first you don't succeed, you're not cut out for skydiving

"Miles" < snipped-for-privacy@nopers.com> wrote in message
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The numbers used to determine unemployment are the most accurate given. How accurate they are is beyond your or my ability to know, since there is no other method. Therefore, the numbers presented are the best to be had. If there were better sources for this, you would certainly have found them, correct? Since you've presented no data refuting the numbers as presented, we can only use what we know, which is the numbers I used. Don't like it? Start your own statistical research company.

Sorry, no. Stagflation was the 1970's. Now we still have economic growth, unemployment isn't rising at a terrible rate, if at all, and inflation isn't very high. In the 1970's under Carter (damn, a Democrat? How terrible for you) Inflation went up and stayed up, stagnating, as did unemployment, while the economy stalled completely.

Again, false. As much as I hate to say it, the economy was doing very well during the Bush Presidency after 2002. Until 2007 it was in a boom period, especially the housing industry.

Pure rubbish. You have no grounds to stand on with this claim.

The biggest indicator of the dollar is the oil market. Otherwise, commodities trade just like everything else. Stagflation isn't an issue at all at this time.

This is because of the low dollar, not the economy. Try reading a few reports on this, rather than making assinine assumptions.
--
Max

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And this means what? Oh yea, not a dam thing. Just because they are the most accurate given does not mean that they actually are accurate or even close.

Which again means nothing. Actually, I am wrong here. Since you have claimed that the accuracy is beyond either of our ability to know, they are worse than meaningless as they can actually be purposely misleading us.

LOL, inflation is high compared to increases in income.

LOL, it was a housing bubble and the economy was far from booming. If the economy was so great, his approval rating would not be the disaster that it is.

LOL.
More complete crap. The dollar value is only a small portion of the problem. If salaries remain consistant and inflation increases, then you have stagflation, even if the economy has a microscopic level of growth.

Reports are for the most part complete bullshit. Try opening your eyes and see what is happening rather than making your assinine assumptions.
--
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...

It means you have no other numbers, no other source, and no way to refute what I've posted, thats what it means.

They could be, but they aren't. Thats just your paranoid view.

Thats not what you originally said. Further, I'd venture a guess that some employers give more than 5% raises per year. Thus, your original statment is clearly forgotten now that you know you are wrong, and your new claim is debatable depending on employee and employer pay rates.

First, yes, it was a housing bubble with regard to prices. It is not a housing bubble with regard to the need for new housing. Second, the approval rating of a president proves nothing when it comes to the health of the economy. What this tells me is that again, you have no solid proof of what you are trying to claim, so you insist on tying two totally unrelated concepts together in the hopes of making yourself sound logical.

However, inflation has decreased since the first of the year. Thus, no matter what you call stagflation, if it involves a rising rate of inflation, its not happening now due to the decrease in the rate of inflation.

Reports are complete bullshit only to those that a) don't read them, or b) don't agree with their contents. You fit both categories. Until you post numbers proving me wrong, you can argue with yourself.
--
Max

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I can make up some numbers if it makes you feel better but they would be no more accurate than the ones that you posted.

How do you know? You were the one that made the claim that "How accurate they are is beyond your or my ability to know" so by your own admission, you don't.

I know what I said but what is the point of beating a dead horse. You are only going to see what you want to and never admit to any type of error so what is the point?

And that's all it would be is a guess and a bad one at that. While I'm sure that a few did get that and possibly more, most did not.

LOL, wrong again and I'm not the one that came up with this. This came from the experts on CNBC who's word I would take over yours any day of the week. Any way you want to spin it Max, prices on most things are going up due to massive increases in energy and commodities costs while employee salaries are stagnant and the economic growth is miniscule and that is stagfaltion.

LOL, you really need to read some of those reports you keep talking about. There was no need for most of that housing because if there were, there simply could not be what is now considered an 11 month supply.

Are you really this stupid??? It damn well does.

No, it is just more of your lame spin as usual.

Yawn, please show me exactly where prices are falling. Now the rate of infaltion may have dropped some but until it drops below the level of pay increases it still exists. For someone with 2 degrees, you still don't have a clue.

The numbers are what they are but only a fool would believe them on blind faith, especially when every economic indicator says something very different.
--
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TBone wrote:

lol, you're one to talk! You blab all about the great economy of the 90's and ignore the tech bubble that it was.
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That's because the tech bubble as you call it created high paying jobs all over the place and many were doing well, not just the tech investors.
--
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Could some of the job shortage in the trades and tools on the used tools on the market be related to you being in the hurricane area, bro?
I remember that there were a huge amount of companies hired/contracted to help rebuild the New Orleans area and the government probably bought them a bunch of things like roofing nailers..
I'm not in touch with the CA building trades much anymore, bit I was real surprised to hear that a friend bought a new house near Fresno and that he had to do the lottery thing to be able to buy one.. He said that they were all sold before the construction was done and that they were plowing more orchards under to build more houses..
Definitely not what I'd thought was happening to the housing market..
The building boom here in Baja has damned near stopped.. My builder did about 15 houses a year in 06 and 07 but has only started 3 homes so far in 08... No money coming down from sales and refinances in the States..
mac
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Roy wrote:

SO your one town represents the entire nation? When a town booms with construction and then the construction returns towards normal levels theres going to be a lot out of work. Thats the construction biz. Those jobs will be picked up in the new boom town.
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No Miles, it is a goodly portion of FL.
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Roy wrote:

Well theres none here and Phoenix got hit hard with the housing market situation. Phoenix has been one of the fastest growing cities and still is. Growth is still strong although not in housing since they way overbuilt recently.
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And much of that housing labor there was done by illegals just like here and IIRC, Arizona is making an effort to get rid of them so there is no real supprise that they are not walking the streets carrying signs looking for work.
--
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