Re: Fuel Price

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Here we go again.

LOL, unless those reports were written TODAY, they really don't mean shit. If the supply is fine as you say, why would the President be considering opening some of the national oil reserve?

If the price was purely based on people in the futures market speculating to drive the price up, the possibility of the President opening up the reserves would cause the price to plummet and that didn't happen. Perhaps you missed that hurricane yesterday and the damage it caused to some major supply lines.
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Some of those reports were written today. Find me anything that says there is a shortage of oil. All I've read says, theres no shortage, just a huge investor pool that likes to speculate.
As to the president, we all know why he's considering it. Political favor, insurance in keeping a good economy, etc. But I doubt it'll have any real effect on pump prices, since there is plenty of oil to be had.

You missed it, the price DID drop over $2 a barrel on that news, and DESPITE the hurricane not suddenly disappearing. Damage to major supply lines, maybe, but all the refinery spokespeople are claiming minor damage.
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<snip>

You seem to miss something here, Max. There was over a million barrels per day refining production shut down along the coast prior to the hurricane hitting. That is lost gas/diesel/jet/ production prior to the storm.
Then the storm hits and does whatever damage to the facilities it does. If it were heavy damage, it would take months to repair. If it were minor damage, then they only have to do system checks and get rid of the gators and snakes and make it safe to operate again. This could be days of inspection, testing and repair, if you had full crews and extra contractors.
In the days of a regular plant shutdown/turnaround, all this workforce worked there butts off and went home after their shift or to the motel. Hello? The homes are gone. There are no hotels. Most of the infrastructure is gone. It is difficult to start a refinery with nobody to run it. Lots of companies are helping the communities by bringing in basic needs. Without that, people won't be able to work.
Some of you out there think all you have to do is turn a key and a refinery starts. This ain't your sweet Dodge Ram CTD. LOL! Depending on the particular unit, it may take a week to 10 days to come up online and make on-test product. That is when no problems occur during startup. Some facilities took most of a month after the last hurricane went through Mississippi.
Gasoline shortage? You will get your gasoline after the refiners outbid someone else for the tanker load of gas. Maybe you ought to feel good that you have a vehicle to put it in. Thousands in the South no longer do.
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Didn't miss it at all, and apparently neither did the market, as the price on the trading day before landfall hit a high just over $70, and then dropped back just below $68 a barrel. If you read what I wrote, you'd see that I didn't miss that part, since I used that pricing to rebut a comment exactly like yours.

True, but "days of inspection" are better than months of no production. According to what I was hearing mid afternoon, damage was "minor". Again, I said that before.

Ok, so the companies spend some of their profits and create the services needed to support employees. Not a huge hardship, given the size and resources of these companies.

Great, so its a month instead of six. Again, We're talking about things I already noted.

I'l repeat myself, I do not believe, based on almost all reports I've read and heard, that there is any shortage of motor fuel in this country. And yes, I feel good that I have a vehicle to put it in. Take note (because obviously you haven't) I have yet to complain about the cost of fuel. Do I like it? No. But at this point, I'm doing ok with it, and have no real hardship. Perhaps you should take that into account next time you decide to lecture me with a guilt trip.
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You didn't miss it, you simply didn't understand it. $2 is chump change and means nothing.

minor
gators
I
Then you heard wrong. Until they get the flood water out of the way, there is no way to inspect and no idea how bad the damage really is so most of the reports that you hear right now are wishful thinking and simply bullshit.

It is a HUGE hardship as much of the area is still under water and there is no way to get building supplies into these areas. Then you can add the facts that there is no electricity, drinking water, or shelter nearby for the construction crews either and the problem becomes much larger than you want to see.
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Thanks for jumping through the same hoop twice.
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I remember my younger days I did a temp job on a Mobil Oil turnaround. They had to wait a while before crews could start work on it. 2 weeks later they turned the unit back on and after about 10 days it was too hot for anyone to work on it anymore. End of job

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shit.
The futures market tells me all I need to see. Unless supplies in the NEAR future are going to be strained, the price cannot be driven up like that and the news today backs me up.

Once again, you are completely wrong. 3 Refineries are under water and will not be restarting any time soon, there is currently NO production in the gulf at all, the mars platform is severely damaged and will probably be down for months and an entire 50 million dollar rig is MISSING. Now the President has said that he WILL tap the strategic reserves which would (if the price was driven up by pure speculation) cause a major price drop and again, that didn't happen. A $2.00 price drop means NOTHING and today, the price held at $70 a barrel.

speculating
DESPITE
There tune has now changed and $2 a barrel doesn't mean shit, not when we are up $20.
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Um, no, they had weeks, its hurricane season, and they knew a week in advance that Katrina was coming into the gulf. Thus, they had at least ten days to figure it out, maybe more. I'm sure they have their own meteorological staff that helps them keep track of such things.
As to the damage, I'm STILL not seeing anything that says the damage was more than minor to these refineries.
What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in the U.S.

Its a big country, and since Texas has terminals, as do states along the east coast. If the oil companies felt they had a problem, you can bet the tankers would be sent elsewhere to off load.

Ok, so who says it'll be months?

Ahh yes, the ol' "you don't know what you're talking about, and neither do I, so I'll just insult you and leave my defense of my statements at that."
How original.

It is that simple.

Wrong. You obviously don't know how the market works. These people are buying a stake in the FUTURE of oil production, expecting that their investment will bear a return. They aren't buying a supply, they are buying (and risking) on a product yet to be produced.

I have, but it seems you have not.

The key word being "BELIEVED".

But in the case of fuel, they keep buying, don't they? Thus, the spiral goes on.

Except for that little word you used, "BELIEVED" ..to be in short supply.

Got a source on this? I keep hearing "minor damage".

Rubbish. 900+ platforms, and no production?

Paranoia reins supreme it seems. You're good at listing damage, bu say nothing of whats still working. All your info is speculative, with no sources listed. I've been watching MSN, among others, and so far, no reports on huge oil related damages.

Up $20 from what point in time? Get it yet? This rise in price has been LONG TERM, not just from this week.
I'd like to see you sources on refinery damage.
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Apparently, pre-Kat, the refineries in the US have been running darned near to capacity. There haven't been any new refineries built in the US in far too long. Too many NIMBYers.
wrote:

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While you are correct would you want one in your backyard?
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"Steve Scott" < snipped-for-privacy@twcny.rr.com> wrote in message
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Sure they can put one in my backyard. Sell them the whole property and they can have the front yard too.
Seriously, there are MANY locations in the US where a refinery could be placed and the impact would be minimal.
wrote:

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Terrific, but to use that logic, a drop of 10% in production in the past week is being blamed for a 60% rise in cost over the past year.
Simply isn't so. Fact is, global demand has driven the speculative market over the past year, not lack of refinery capacity in the past week.
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don't neglect the news media fueling the feeding frenzy
if the media would STFU for a few days, prices would stabilize; instead, their constant harping leads operators to think 'hey, the news people have the general public believing it will go still higher, let's raise it another 20 cents........'
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It's both really. Anticipated increases in global demand while current world oil production is near its peak have driven up the oil futures. Nine consecutive weeks of a decrease in US gas stockpiles has also helped to drive up US gas prices.
wrote:

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LOL, can you really be this stupid. Hurricanes are just about impossible to predict as to exact path and strength. Until it got there (into the gulf) they had no idea where it would wind up and when it did cross over Florida, it entered the gulf as a weak category 1. Then after it got there, they still had no idea how much stronger it would get OR it's path back out. At first they thought it would turn NE and hit Florida again. Like I said, at best they had DAYS and either way and until it actually made landfall, they still didn't know exactly where it was going to hit. BTW, refineries under water don't produce much and pipelines without power to their pumps transport NOTHING.

While the damage may be minor, they don't have the power or personel to restart right away and many are still under water and cannot restart until the water is removed.

The other ones are already under maximum proguction so what exactly do you expect them to do? And even if they could produce more, how exactly do you expect to get the product to where it needs to go?

LOL, yea, and they will get there when, in a week or so. And if these east coast and Texas refineries are already operating at maximum capacity, what exactly is this extra crude going to do for them?

The news and the President.

have
I know more about this than you do.

Nope.
buying
That is correct and that risk has to be founded in something. If as you and Miles say, that the supply is just fine, there would be no justification in taking that risk and at the first sign of trouble (like the President opening the national reserves) the price would crash just like it did with the tech bubble.

why
If you read it, you didn't understand what you were reading.

That is correct and that belief has to be based on some facts and figures. The people that can afford to make these investments didn't get that money by being foolish.

pay
goes
Sure, they keep buying, but they tend to buy less (and buy more fuel efficient vehicles) and if the reserves of gas increase, the price falls and these investors lose money.

Because it is with record low reserves BEFORE this disaster AND before the big holiday.

Just because the damage is minor doesn't mean that they can restart. Under water is under water and even if the water is only a few feet high, it is enough to prevent the refinery from restarting and if the pipeline is not operational, where exactly is the output going to go?

Don't tell me, talk to Shell. They made the comment on CNBC today. Did you forget about the evacuations on those platforms?

(if
and
Because if we are running at 100%, what is still working doesn't really matter. What matters is how much is no longer working and for how long.

reports
LOL, just look at the area and the aerial pictures. The place is a disaster with no housing, power, or water. Where are these people going to live who operate these refineries and how are they going to more the refined materials with the pipeline down, the roads under water, and no fuel for the trucks to transport it?

we
LONG
I never said that it was all from this week. Roy made a complaint about the sudden jump in price of diesel this week and that WAS due to this storm. As for the $20 dollar increase, that was the past few months and was not due to pure speculation but was due to real problems with supply and demand.

Try CNBC, the local news, the President, CNN....
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Yeah, thats why they are able to put a five day track on them, and pretty much nail the track dead on. If they are within 100 miles (and they were) on such a storm they nailed it.

Yeah, and everyone knows a hurricane over water gathers strength. Except you apparently. "Weak category 1" shows how much you actually know about this sort of thing.

It tracked almost exactly as NOAA had it on their websites.

You seem to think trucks and trains are the answer, so why ask me?

Let me get this straight, you believe the President on this issue, but everything else, from the economy to the Iraq War, you say h has no clue and doesn't have the facts. Is that how it works?

Apparently not.

HAS to be? Yeah, I'm sure all the day traders know exactly what they are looking at. And I'm sure all the info sources have it right. Just like the President does this ONE time with your beliefs.

And Shell owns ALL the platforms, right?

You'd be surprised what large industry can do when they see a profit opportunity. All those questions and more WILL be answered by the close of business Friday. BET on it.

Yeah, I listed CNN as one of my sources, and here you are contradicting it. You list the president as a reliable source, which contradicts anything you've said about the man in recorced history, and expect me to believe what you say. Laughable at best.
Please post 25 times in response to this, I want to see you top 100 worthless posts to this thread.
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impossible
on
LOL, yea, within their 100 mile cone of uncertainty. The problem with that is that 100 miles makes a HUGE difference in the amount of damage. You do know that, right? And on top of that, do you really want tankers in port with an approaching hurricane?

LOL, that is not true. Hurricanes over WARM water gain strength but that is not the only condition and although they gain strength, there is no way of knowing how much. They predicted a strong 3 or possibly a 4 not the 5 that it became.

about this

Still apparently far more than you do.

Yea, within their 100 mile possible deviation and no idea of how strong it might become.

you
Because you claim to know everything. Trucks and trains are an emergency solution but you keep saying that the impact is minimal so perhaps you know something that everyone else doesn't.

and
And you claim that he is right about everything and now he is lying, LOL. That door swings both ways Maxi. The difference here is that the damage is obvious and the reports back him up this time.

Wrong again, but why spoil a near perfect record.

figures.
money
That is right, the belief HAS TO BE based of some facts and figures or they are fools and would be soon parted from that money. Having some facts and figures does not mean that they know everything and things can change AND the can simply be wrong but playing the futures market is MUCH more involved than just making lucky guesses as you seem to indicate.

Why would they be any different than the rest of them?

Of course they are going at it for all that they are worth but there are limits to even what the big oil companies can do and it all costs money. People still need food, water, and shelter and until a temporary infrastructure can be set up to support these needs, not much is going to happen and I doubt that business is going to close for them on Friday.

it.
what
LOL, believe what you want to Max, you are still wrong. As of 10:00AM on CNBS, 91% of crude production in the gulf has been reported as stopped which is considered significant to me. Reports now indicate that up to 20 platforms are missing and the ones still there are just beginning to undergo inspections. So much for minor damage.

PKB. BTW, you are getting very predictable and it has become expected that when you find yourself on the losing end of an argument or discussion that you begin saying things like you did above.
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The only problem with a 100 mile wide prediction is foolish people who gamble regardless. If you find that a hurricane is tracked within 100 miles of you, get the fuck out, its that damn simple. Its also very wise, given that even within that 100 miles damage is inevitable, no matter the level. You do know that, right?
As to the tankers, WTF, are there no other ports? I think we've done this Q&A before. You do know THAT, right?

Actually, it was a Cat 4 when it hit landfall, according to the Weather Channel, less than Camille, which was a Cat 5. However, I fail to see what diffference 131 MPH or 155MPH makes to most buildings; both will knock the crap out of a house. Thus your point about what category Katrina may have been is... well moot at best.

Well, they predicted a strong Cat 4, and thats what it was. They had a track that put it well into the Gulf and turning north, and thats what it did. I'm amused that you are blaming the supposed inaccuracy of the NOAA and the Hurricane Center for your inability to prove a totally different point.

Never said he was lying, I just figure on most things he's a mouth piece trying to say the right thing. I find it amusing that you, OTOH, will blast him for anything, then rely on his words to prove your weak points. BTW, if you recall, I have said over and over that he was wrong to invade Iraq, although I can see positives to having done so. But you knew that, right?

Because different compaines have different operating policies, different locations, and different equipment. But you knew that, right?

Ya know, if an oil company can feed, house, and employ hundreds of men 60-100 miles out to sea, I'll bet they can do the same on land. Its not gonna be as difficult as you make it out to be.

I was speaking about the refineries. So far, you haven't mentioned anything about them, you just keep dodging the issue and talking about other stuff. So they lost 20 out of 950, its still not the major losses you claim.
Had a chat with my broker today. I asked him what he thought of the oil prices. He said he figured the Gulf and Katrina were minor factors in a global economy and that prices were up for now due to the storm, but would gradually tail off in October, but never be lower than $2 a gallon again. He also took issue with the predicted $4 per gallon, saying he felt that perhaps eventually it would go there, but not in the forseeable future. He mentioned that refineries were running at near capacity, but that he expected the companies would bounce back fairly easily on that issue.
This guy has made a small fortune for my grandparents, thus I don't particularly give a damn if you take issue with what he says. As far as I can see, he knows his shit, and thats good enough for me.
Please continue your posting frenzy, and be sure to insult my dead grandparents and their very much alive broker while you are at it.
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TBone wrote:

Tell us why Gore wanted to tap the reserves when gas prices rose during his campaign? Tell us how it wasn't pure politics.

Geez TBone are you that ignorant? A puny release of US oil reserves to help a few local refineries isn't going to affect the global futures price of oil more than the $2 it did. Domestic oil prices flucuate only short term and will always follow the global futures market for the longer term.
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