Re: Fuel Price

What? They aren't stuck out there you know. Crude has changed in value on ships since crude was first loaded on a ship. You think these tankers drive up a river or something. They can unload in any port with storage just like they always have.

Reply to
Jerry
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The above are my words.

Regardless, there are two reasons for a president to tap the reserves, 1) political favor, 2) economic gain or stability.

Reply to
Max Dodge

Terrific, but to use that logic, a drop of 10% in production in the past week is being blamed for a 60% rise in cost over the past year.

Simply isn't so. Fact is, global demand has driven the speculative market over the past year, not lack of refinery capacity in the past week.

Reply to
Max Dodge

Damn right, just like a slight bad report can cause a stock to crash. If the supply was not strained, the risk would be way to high to push the prices to the level that they currently are and at the first sign of something that could cause the price to fall would cause a selloff. The reason that the selloff isn't happening is because they know that the supply is limited and will soon be exceeded by demand, especially in the light of this storm damage.

Reply to
TBone

Since I don't believe that Bush is running for any type of office at this time, what does what Gore may have done have anything to do with now???

But what you seem to be missing is the fact that global futures are going up and unless the supply is strained, that simply would not happen, at least no to the level that it currently is.

Reply to
TBone

don't neglect the news media fueling the feeding frenzy

if the media would STFU for a few days, prices would stabilize; instead, their constant harping leads operators to think 'hey, the news people have the general public believing it will go still higher, let's raise it another

20 cents........'
Reply to
TranSurgeon

Reply to
Steve Scott

You forgot one, how about need.

Reply to
TBone

LOL, can you really be this stupid. Hurricanes are just about impossible to predict as to exact path and strength. Until it got there (into the gulf) they had no idea where it would wind up and when it did cross over Florida, it entered the gulf as a weak category 1. Then after it got there, they still had no idea how much stronger it would get OR it's path back out. At first they thought it would turn NE and hit Florida again. Like I said, at best they had DAYS and either way and until it actually made landfall, they still didn't know exactly where it was going to hit. BTW, refineries under water don't produce much and pipelines without power to their pumps transport NOTHING.

While the damage may be minor, they don't have the power or personel to restart right away and many are still under water and cannot restart until the water is removed.

The other ones are already under maximum proguction so what exactly do you expect them to do? And even if they could produce more, how exactly do you expect to get the product to where it needs to go?

LOL, yea, and they will get there when, in a week or so. And if these east coast and Texas refineries are already operating at maximum capacity, what exactly is this extra crude going to do for them?

The news and the President.

I know more about this than you do.

Nope.

That is correct and that risk has to be founded in something. If as you and Miles say, that the supply is just fine, there would be no justification in taking that risk and at the first sign of trouble (like the President opening the national reserves) the price would crash just like it did with the tech bubble.

If you read it, you didn't understand what you were reading.

That is correct and that belief has to be based on some facts and figures. The people that can afford to make these investments didn't get that money by being foolish.

Sure, they keep buying, but they tend to buy less (and buy more fuel efficient vehicles) and if the reserves of gas increase, the price falls and these investors lose money.

Because it is with record low reserves BEFORE this disaster AND before the big holiday.

Just because the damage is minor doesn't mean that they can restart. Under water is under water and even if the water is only a few feet high, it is enough to prevent the refinery from restarting and if the pipeline is not operational, where exactly is the output going to go?

Don't tell me, talk to Shell. They made the comment on CNBC today. Did you forget about the evacuations on those platforms?

Because if we are running at 100%, what is still working doesn't really matter. What matters is how much is no longer working and for how long.

LOL, just look at the area and the aerial pictures. The place is a disaster with no housing, power, or water. Where are these people going to live who operate these refineries and how are they going to more the refined materials with the pipeline down, the roads under water, and no fuel for the trucks to transport it?

I never said that it was all from this week. Roy made a complaint about the sudden jump in price of diesel this week and that WAS due to this storm. As for the $20 dollar increase, that was the past few months and was not due to pure speculation but was due to real problems with supply and demand.

Try CNBC, the local news, the President, CNN....

Reply to
TBone

Yeah, thats why they are able to put a five day track on them, and pretty much nail the track dead on. If they are within 100 miles (and they were) on such a storm they nailed it.

Yeah, and everyone knows a hurricane over water gathers strength. Except you apparently. "Weak category 1" shows how much you actually know about this sort of thing.

It tracked almost exactly as NOAA had it on their websites.

You seem to think trucks and trains are the answer, so why ask me?

Let me get this straight, you believe the President on this issue, but everything else, from the economy to the Iraq War, you say h has no clue and doesn't have the facts. Is that how it works?

Apparently not.

HAS to be? Yeah, I'm sure all the day traders know exactly what they are looking at. And I'm sure all the info sources have it right. Just like the President does this ONE time with your beliefs.

And Shell owns ALL the platforms, right?

You'd be surprised what large industry can do when they see a profit opportunity. All those questions and more WILL be answered by the close of business Friday. BET on it.

Yeah, I listed CNN as one of my sources, and here you are contradicting it. You list the president as a reliable source, which contradicts anything you've said about the man in recorced history, and expect me to believe what you say. Laughable at best.

Please post 25 times in response to this, I want to see you top 100 worthless posts to this thread.

Reply to
Max Dodge

I know this one!

From

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In September of 2000, President Bill Clinton ordered the release of 30 million barrels of oil from the SPR to offset a spike in heating oil prices in the northeast. The decision came one day after an appeal from Vice-President Al Gore, who was locked in a tight (and ultimately unsuccessful) presidential campaign. The political motivations for Clinton's decision are worrisome, as is the minimal effect. At the time, refineries were operating at full capacity, so the excess crude did little to lower heating oil prices. There was simply a shortage of heating oil on the market, not crude. Even the White House admitted that only about 40 percent of the released oil would eventually be converted to heating oil.

He's proven it more times than I can count.

A puny release of US oil reserves to

Reply to
John Smith

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Yea, and you have had such useful input in the group. Now GFY.

Reply to
TBone

LOL, yea, within their 100 mile cone of uncertainty. The problem with that is that 100 miles makes a HUGE difference in the amount of damage. You do know that, right? And on top of that, do you really want tankers in port with an approaching hurricane?

LOL, that is not true. Hurricanes over WARM water gain strength but that is not the only condition and although they gain strength, there is no way of knowing how much. They predicted a strong 3 or possibly a 4 not the 5 that it became.

Still apparently far more than you do.

Yea, within their 100 mile possible deviation and no idea of how strong it might become.

Because you claim to know everything. Trucks and trains are an emergency solution but you keep saying that the impact is minimal so perhaps you know something that everyone else doesn't.

And you claim that he is right about everything and now he is lying, LOL. That door swings both ways Maxi. The difference here is that the damage is obvious and the reports back him up this time.

Wrong again, but why spoil a near perfect record.

That is right, the belief HAS TO BE based of some facts and figures or they are fools and would be soon parted from that money. Having some facts and figures does not mean that they know everything and things can change AND the can simply be wrong but playing the futures market is MUCH more involved than just making lucky guesses as you seem to indicate.

Why would they be any different than the rest of them?

Of course they are going at it for all that they are worth but there are limits to even what the big oil companies can do and it all costs money. People still need food, water, and shelter and until a temporary infrastructure can be set up to support these needs, not much is going to happen and I doubt that business is going to close for them on Friday.

LOL, believe what you want to Max, you are still wrong. As of 10:00AM on CNBS, 91% of crude production in the gulf has been reported as stopped which is considered significant to me. Reports now indicate that up to 20 platforms are missing and the ones still there are just beginning to undergo inspections. So much for minor damage.

PKB. BTW, you are getting very predictable and it has become expected that when you find yourself on the losing end of an argument or discussion that you begin saying things like you did above.

Reply to
TBone

Sure, you can unload it provided that the other ports have room for it but many of these other ports already have a full load of ships coming in and the real problem is getting the crude to where it is needed, not just getting it off of the ship.

Reply to
TBone

Tbone chokes on the truth........

Reply to
Max Dodge

The only problem with a 100 mile wide prediction is foolish people who gamble regardless. If you find that a hurricane is tracked within 100 miles of you, get the f*ck out, its that damn simple. Its also very wise, given that even within that 100 miles damage is inevitable, no matter the level. You do know that, right?

As to the tankers, WTF, are there no other ports? I think we've done this Q&A before. You do know THAT, right?

Actually, it was a Cat 4 when it hit landfall, according to the Weather Channel, less than Camille, which was a Cat 5. However, I fail to see what diffference 131 MPH or 155MPH makes to most buildings; both will knock the crap out of a house. Thus your point about what category Katrina may have been is... well moot at best.

Well, they predicted a strong Cat 4, and thats what it was. They had a track that put it well into the Gulf and turning north, and thats what it did. I'm amused that you are blaming the supposed inaccuracy of the NOAA and the Hurricane Center for your inability to prove a totally different point.

Never said he was lying, I just figure on most things he's a mouth piece trying to say the right thing. I find it amusing that you, OTOH, will blast him for anything, then rely on his words to prove your weak points. BTW, if you recall, I have said over and over that he was wrong to invade Iraq, although I can see positives to having done so. But you knew that, right?

Because different compaines have different operating policies, different locations, and different equipment. But you knew that, right?

Ya know, if an oil company can feed, house, and employ hundreds of men

60-100 miles out to sea, I'll bet they can do the same on land. Its not gonna be as difficult as you make it out to be.

I was speaking about the refineries. So far, you haven't mentioned anything about them, you just keep dodging the issue and talking about other stuff. So they lost 20 out of 950, its still not the major losses you claim.

Had a chat with my broker today. I asked him what he thought of the oil prices. He said he figured the Gulf and Katrina were minor factors in a global economy and that prices were up for now due to the storm, but would gradually tail off in October, but never be lower than $2 a gallon again. He also took issue with the predicted $4 per gallon, saying he felt that perhaps eventually it would go there, but not in the forseeable future. He mentioned that refineries were running at near capacity, but that he expected the companies would bounce back fairly easily on that issue.

This guy has made a small fortune for my grandparents, thus I don't particularly give a damn if you take issue with what he says. As far as I can see, he knows his shit, and thats good enough for me.

Please continue your posting frenzy, and be sure to insult my dead grandparents and their very much alive broker while you are at it.

Reply to
Max Dodge

Gee, now look at the one who responds to posts that have nothing to do with them, LOL. Like I said before Max and Tom commented on, stop accusing me of the things that you do.

Reply to
TBone

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