Re: Fuel Price

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do,
a
LOL, a reserve for how long Max. These refineries could be down for months and who knows how long it will take to fully repair the infrastructure. And BTW, they had DAYS, not weeks to prepare.

Sure, and where are they going to offload too?

of
Yea, a buffer for a few days or even weeks, not months.

Not only do you have to look at the futures market Max, you actually have to understand it and from what you are saying, you don't.

up
If it were only this simple. First of all, the only way that people could drive uip the price this way is if the supplies are limited which according to you, they are not. Then there is a SIGNIFICANT risk of loss driving up the price in a market that has a ready supply because someone else can sell below what you even paid for it is supplies are plentyful. This is only the beginning and I really don't have the time to list out point by point why this is wrong and you really need to do a little reading. The only thing that I will say that the only way for the futures of something to be driven up like this is because the near future availability of of the item is believed to be in SHORT supply.

The price is always determined by the market Max. If people will not pay the price that you want, then you lose money.
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TBone wrote:

The futures market for anything is based on speculation. Like the stock market they go up and down daily. When oil futures go up, gas prices climb almost instantly. When they go down, gas prices take a considerable time to drop. All through this year the oil supply has been steady and stocks fairly constant. So as you say, do some reading on this.
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If the supply is so damn steady, why has the price been rising steadily for the last few months. It appears to be you that need to do a little reading as well.
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"miles" < snipped-for-privacy@nopers.com> wrote in message
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Because speculators are betting the price will go up even more due to world conditions. Miles is right. The futures market has been driving the price of oil the past few months.
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Steve Scott wrote:

Yep, for starters they are betting that China will continue to increase it's demand and willingness to bid prices higher.
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But if there is no problem with supply, why would China's increased demand have any effect on the price of oil??? I must admit, it is funny to watch you disprove yourself.
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And if current history in metals is any indicator they would be right in thinking so.

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TBone wrote:

Because of oil prices globally TBone!! Not too low of gas supplies. Gas prices here aren't because of US issues. It's global issues.
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for
reading
LOL, we are part of the global community and our waste of resources has a huge affect on the global price of oil.
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TBone wrote:

So you think the current oil escalation in price since January is because of US waste of resources? Another bonehead statement.
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a
Is it the whole reason, of course not and my statement says no such thing but if you think that it has no or even just a small effect, the true boneheaded statement is comming from you.
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TBone wrote:

Is the rapid rise in oil since Jan. mostly caused by USA use? TBone, you need to follow whats been happening globally. It's not the USA thats been driving up the prices world wide. You might want to do your research on Chinas rise of oil consumption.
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thing
LOL, you really need to pull your head out of the sand Miles. You keep saying Global and yet refuse to admit that we are not only part of the global economy, but the biggest user of it. China is not the only country on the rise when it comes to use and are not the only ones to blame for the increase. The funny thing is that you and Maxi (but mostly you) keep claiming that there is no shortage or even strain on the supply and if that were true, how would China or anyone else cause this steep rise?
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TBone wrote:

You're mixing two things up. Supply of oil, and supply of gas. China's use of oil has skyrocketed the past couple of years. Thats by far the single biggest cause of oil price rises. The gas supply in the USA has been steady. There have not been shortages at gas storage facilities. USA usage of gas or oil is not why oil prices have shot up.
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country
the
that
The gas supply HAS NOT been steady and over the past three months has dropped to record lows for this time of year. Perhaps that has to do with the automotive manufacturers employee pricing and a huge bunch of idiots buying the biggest SUV's and trucks that they can. While China's use of oil has significantly increased, ours has gone up more than usual as well so we in fact are to blame for the increase in the price of oil just like any other significant user. But that still doesn't answer the question I asked you. If the supply of oil is not strained, how would China, us, or any one else's increase in demand cause the price to shoot up that way?
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Good question, TBone. Too bad what you've said doesn't answer that question.
Face it, the prices were climbing FAST before the gulf storm. Yet you continue to blame it on refinery shut downs and storm damage. Sure, thats part of it, but it wasn't part of the price climb prior to August 28th. Prices are up by 60% over the past year, yet demand isn't up that much. Nor is supply down by that much. Refinery capacity isn't down that much (7 or 11%, depending on which story you read on CNN Money) nor is production in the field. OPEC has volunteered to pump the hell out of the stuff, so no shortage of crude.
BTW, CNN also says the price of futures "sank" by $1.81 upon news of the Feds release of reserve. I guess THEY think $2 is a pretty good drop.
So what is it, if Miles and I are wrong about the specualtive market driving this rise in prices?
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question.
LOL, that depends on what question.

I did no such thing. I said the current sudden increase was due to supply and demand and the supply was cut down by the storm.

Never said that it was. That increase is caused by a strain on supply due to increasing demand, something that Miles says doesn't exist.

Really, got proof.

or
A major pipeline is now down due to power failures so supply is much more greatly affected than you think. Then you can add to that the fact that most of our refineries are already at 100% and a 7 to 11 percent reduction is major.

Getting more crude does not help when you can't get it where it needs to go.

Yep, and I would say that is close to the increase from pure speculation. Gee, I wounder where the rest of the increase is comming from.

driving
It is that the supply is not what you think it is.
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From FT.com today "US gasoline futures surged to a record high on Wednesday after the Department of Energy reported a 500,000 barrel drop in gasoline inventories to 194.4m barrels as stocks fell for a ninth week in succession." This was through August 26, before Katrina.
Apparently demand is exceeding supply and we know what happens next.
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Nine weeks does not explain 9 MONTHS of rising prices.
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Actually, yes it does but are you able to figure out how or why?
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"Max Dodge" < snipped-for-privacy@verizon.net> wrote in message
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