GM U.S. July sales down 19.5 percent, Honda up 10.2%

You have no idea what you are talking about. Fleet buyers do a far better job of maintaining their vehicles than the average owner. How may owners do you know that do things like changes brake fluid, do pressure tests monthly, take off door panels to lubricate window actuators, take apart and clean electrical connectors etc?

To a corporate fleet a vehicle is a 'tool' needed to run their business. Down time costs money. They generally keep them in service for five years or 300K WOF, because of federal deprecation tax laws. Many keep them even longer. To government fleets, maintenance is primary as well. To a police officer his patrol car is as important as his weapon, it has to work properly or it could cost him his life One state police department that we serviced, has Jeeps Cherokees from the eighties, with over 200k on the clock and still in tip top shape, in use in mountainous parts of the state.

The only high volume buyers that don't care about their cars are most of the rental car companies. Top fluids and get it back on the road. The difference is to a rental car company vehicles are NOT a tool, but their product that they get rid off in a year or less.

mike hunt

(idiot top posting fixed)

What are you talking about, oh top posting one?

nate

(idiot top posting fixed)

I do that, and I try to remind those that I care about to do that as well. Not done on fleet vehicles IME.

Nobody does that, not even the fleet managers. I should know, having a fleet car. Well, I do, when I have to, on my own cars.

Not true; I turn in my car at 70K miles, I think the service trucks are kept a little longer but not much, maybe 100K or so.

That's the exception not the rule.

IME the fleet services treat the cars exactly like rental cars. When they are turned in at 70K miles they are just about smack wore out (well at least the Impalas the company that services the company that I work for uses are!) Before I got my company car, I drove my predecessor's car for a few days that was actually over the 70K cutoff. Aside from the ludicrously loud noises from under the hood, the shimmy, and the disconcerting creaks and clunks from the front end, it was just fine. I would find this totally unacceptable in a personal vehicle.

nate

Horse shit. Size and power are always a compromise between needs/desires of the buyer for capacity, price, fuel economy, maneuverability and other factors. Otherwise we would all be driving cars the size of the Queen Mary by now.

Well, I guess you have now obliquely defined what a "midget car" is. It must be the Yaris and Fit class of cars. No, these are not built here, at least not yet. (Where are they built?)

You imply that these cars are why Honda and Toyota sales are booming while GM and Ford are in the dumper. The Yaris and Fit constitute only a tiny sliver of Toyota and Honda sales. They certainly don't explain why Pilot outsold Explorer last month.

I have to doubt any "fact" you post, but I do know for sure that truck-based SUV sales have been falling for the last four years.

The average American's wages haven't been keeping up with inflation since W got into office. Lots of Americans can't afford the gas for the Suburban they foolishly bought three years ago no matter how accustomed they become to $3/gal. The truck-based SUVs which kept GM and Ford afloat will not come back until gas drops below $2. Don't hold your breath.

Ford

Where did I say I believed that in the first place? I think you are confused (again).

I don't even know which "fuels" you are even talking about. I know that one "fuel" is already cheaper - electricity. Not too practical for cars (although it might work for some people), but it works pretty well for commuter trains. I also understand that EtOH from sugar cane is at least competitive if not actually cheaper than petroleum fuels in Brazil.

Hydrogen is a sham. If anyone doubted that before, they must realize that now that Bush is promoting it.

Did I say the want small underpowered cars? No, they want vehicles that are bigger >>Size and power are always a compromise between

Here is my prediction:

With high prices and short supplies of fuel (and possibly CO2 restrictions) ahead, Suburbans will become niche vehicles for people who need to transport >6 people all the time. The engine will become anemic, because these buyers won't care about acceleration but will care about fuel economy. The vehicles will gradually become more car-like because the heavy duty frame and off-road capability will be readily sacrificed for greater fuel economy.

The SUV will evolve into stylistic treatment on a car - basically a macho station wagon. What few "real" SUVs remain will be niche vehicles with tiny sales numbers.

And they are doing a lot better with them than GM and Ford.

When fuel was cheap, the compromise (see above) favored size and power over fuel economy (especially since technology was improving mechanic al efficiency to minimize the penalty.) Now that fuel is no longer cheap, the trend will reverse. Actually, it already has. Sales of truck-based SUVs peaked in 2001.

Fit is the new Civic.

The main F150 assembly plant in St. Paul is just coming back form a many-week furlogh, with discussions of going to just one shift instead of two, and mgmt hinting of more furloughs later this year.

Ford is lucky it never sold the Pinto (or much else) in Japan. The Japanese government takes public safety very seriously and they don't mind making an example out of any corporation/executive who puts it at risk.

The Toyota recalls are world-wide. World-wide, Toyota sells more cars than Ford. Also, the Ford recall is a continuation from last year when they recalled over six million trucks for the same problem.

Obviously you prefer to believe only those things you chose to believe, and will not change, even though Ford was exonerated in all three instances. Search the NHTSA and the Congressional Record for the facts, WBMA. ;)

mike

You must have missed the part of my post that said; 'an opinion based on your particular experience.' The facts, as I know them from serving thousands of corporate and government fleets in six states, are quite different. You are entitled to you own opinion, based on your personal experience with ONE vehicle in ONE fleet, but not your own facts pertaining to fleets in general ;)

mike hunt

At least two; the last company I worked for had a similar vehicle program. Oddly enough we're talking about two of the very largest corporations in the entire world.

nate

Mike Hunter wrote:

and mighty GM!

The Chrysler 300 is one of the ugliest cars in production.

Why should that be a surprise -- since Toyota sells more than most others?

The US large personal truck/SUV market is going to contract by about 50% from it's peak. That is what it will take to get back to the 20-25% share of sales which represent the people who have a real need for trucks and are not simply buying them because it is a fad to do so.

Fads come and go, and the every man, woman and child needs a Suburban sized vehicle to sit in stop and go traffic with fad has run it's course. Who is going to go to a party and brag about their new Expedition today? Nobody. But, drive up in a tres chic Toyota Prius and you have something to talk about.

The genius of Toyota is that they have strong contenders in every market segment of consequence from the Prius on one end to the Land Cruiser on the other. Why can the world's second largest auto maker field a more competitive line-up world wide than do GM or Ford?

Hula hoops, beanie babies or Razer scooters anyone?

John

Yes, fads come and go but some actually are worthwhile. Remember how hot the minivan was and how many times it took Honda and Toyota to finally get it right. Ford and GM still can't. But in the end the minivan is a practical vehicle and while not as popular as before they will still be here when the other fad vehicles fade. Remember the "personal luxury coupes" of the seventies. The only who left is the Monte Carlo (the Grand Prix is sedan only now).

The minivan will be around for a long time, but it's peak volume days are over (at least for the full size type).

Pickup trucks are usefull as well and will be around for a long time just as they have been ever since Model T versions were once made, but the days when people would buy them for long commutes to office jobs are probably over as well.

I'm not saying that the large truck / SUV market is going to disappear. I am saying that it is set to contract by about 50%.

John

Clearly you need to read up on how commodities markets work.