GMs Market Share Projected At 15 Percent [that much???]

That much???
GMs Market Share Projected At 15 Percent http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/gms-market-share-projected-at-15-percent /
Bank Of America-Merrill Lynch have released their annual Car Wars
report, and it predicts slumping sales for GM and Chrysler. GMs market share of 22 percent last year is seen shrinking to a mere 15 percent, which is significantly lower than the 18 percent number that GM admits to. The real butt-clencher? Merrill Lynch based its calculations on a 14m unit SAAR, which is much higher than the 10m SAAR that weve been seeing through the first half of the year. Which means GMs losses could be even worse if we dont see a return to those sales numbers soon. Even at a 14m SAAR though, the three percent discrepancy between GMs numbers and Merrills would amount to GM selling half a million fewer autos than expected. The report places blame on weakness in GMs new-product pipeline for the projected drops. GMs Tom Wilkinson fires back at the Freep, arguing we understand that analysts get paid to try to predict the future but that doesnt necessarily mean they are going to be right. Gosh, cant anyone just trust GM?
The Car Wars report also savages Chrysler, arguing that (like GM) a weak product pipline will bring Auburn Hills down. Again. Still. Merrill predicts that ChryCo will be half its size within a few years. Chrysler refused comment on the report, except to say we have no plans to be half our size in the future.
Meanwhile, the fact that Ford plans on replacing 99 percent of its lineup in the 2010-2013 window makes Merrill bullish on the blue oval. Ford is projected to pick up about 3 percent market share by 2013, joining Honda and Hyundai/Kia as the top-tier in projected market share growth. Toyota and Nissan are seen increasing their shares as well, although at a slightly slower rate. The European manufacturers should stay about level, according to Business Weeks take on the report.
The Freep http://tinyurl.com/ksycnl
Analysis finds GM, Chrysler's plans weak
Car Wars report predicts high market share losses
BY TIM HIGGINS FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER
General Motors and Chrysler, fresh out of bankruptcy, will remain challenged in the United States by relatively weak plans to bring new cars and trucks to market, according to an annual competitive analysis released Wednesday by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch.
The report -- called Car Wars -- predicts:
# GM's market share losses "are likely to be greater than expected" because the company is not replacing its lineup as fast as the industry and key rivals. # Chrysler's weak product pipeline is also "an ominous sign" and is expected to drive "significant market share losses." The report said Chrysler could be roughly half of its current size "within the next few years."
# Ford -- with a relatively strong replacement rate and lower average showroom age -- could continue to pick up market share because of a strong product replacement rate over the next four years of an estimated 25%. "This appears to be a result of planning as well as the fortuitous stress at its two main competitors," Car Wars said.
GM calls report simplistic, questions accuracy
Less than a week after the new General Motors emerged from bankruptcy, the report says GMs business assumptions are overly optimistic and further restructuring might be required.
GM strongly disagreed with the report's findings, criticizing the study as being overly simplistic and questioning its accuracy.
"We understand that analysts get paid to try to predict the future. I would take you back two years to what all of the analysts were predicting about the economy, the car market, the housing market and ask them how they did," GM spokesman Tom Wilkinson said. "They get paid to predict the future, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be right."
GM, which had a 22% market share ending last year, predicts its share will even out around 18%.
However, the lack of new product in GM's product pipeline over the next few years is expected to contribute to a further erosion of the Detroit automaker's market share, the report said.
"This puts the market share target of 18-19% at jeopardy, which means that further restructuring actions may be necessary," said the report, whose lead author was analyst John Murphy. "We believe a more reasonable target would be 15-16%."
The discrepancy of 3% means that GM would sell 500,000 fewer vehicles -- or need about two fewer assembly plants -- if U.S. consumers purchase 14 million cars and trucks, the report said.
The Detroit automaker's U.S. restructuring plan already includes cutting 27,000 jobs this year, closing 13 factories and shedding 2,400 dealers by the end of next year.
GM has said the company is being restructured to break even with a U.S. sales market of 10 million vehicles.
Wilkinson noted that GM's future product pipeline is not made public and questioned the accuracy of assumptions used by Car Wars to make its findings.
GM has said its key challenges over the next few years include product design and quality, as well as its ability to execute its brand reduction from eight to four and strengthen its dealer network by shedding underperforming stores.
Industry analyst Erich Merkle, president of Autoconomy.com, disagreed, however, with the notion that further restructuring would be needed at GM if its market share predictions are wrong.
"Even if their market share is a percentage point or two lower than they are expecting, they can still make it up because the ... market will get a lift next year and into 2012," Merkle said.
Last summer, Car Wars said Chrysler's lack of product indicated that its parent company was trying to sell off the Auburn Hills automaker.
A few months later, GM and Chrysler began negotiations about a merger, but those talks were set aside as the sales market plummeted and the companies began running into graver troubles.
Both companies ultimately sought U.S. loans and eventually were restructured through federally-backed bankruptcies. Chrysler was acquired by Fiat.
In the report, the forecasted product replacement rates at GM and Chrysler over the next four years -- of 11% and 8%, respectively -- ranked at the bottom of the industry.
A Chrysler spokesman declined to comment on the report. "However, I can tell you we have no plans to be half our size in the future," spokesman Rick Deneau said in an e-mail.
Ford Motor Co., meanwhile, was a star in the Car Wars report.
The automaker is forecasted to replace 99% of its lineup of cars and trucks from 2010-2013, which will lead it to gain market share, the report said. Ford's annual replacement rate of about 25% during that period is above its historical average of 15% and better than the industry average of 18%, too.
In a separate report, Murphy wrote that the annual Car Wars study "bolsters our confidence in Ford."
--
Civis Romanus Sum

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Surprizing. But that is a "GM prediction", I would wait until the real numbers came in and bet GM does not make 15%. Brand damage, taxpayer needy greedy, corruption, 3800 manifold and other quality issues, parts supply issues, warranty issues, sub-zero credit rating, fewer dealers with the same old executive management as before.
I say we will see Government Motors needing more taxpayers moneys inside a year. Government is going to own this costly turkey for a long time.

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That my be your opinion but IMO I "predict" that your latest "prediction" will be as far off the mark as have been most of your "previous predictions." ;)

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Mike wrote:

<clip>
Who cares what you think Mikey, about anything.
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Look who's talking, JimmyBoy. Shouldn't you be having intimate time with your husband?
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80 Knight wrote:

People that speak only toilet talk and never worthy.
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