Won't be hands down at all. Launching off the line is all about torque & weight. Weight is negligibly close with Mustang at 3450 lbs & M3 at
3415 lbs. Mustang has a big advantage in torque with 320 ft-lbs @ 4500 RPM stock vs. the Bimmer's 269 ft-lbs @ 4900 RPM. However torque is also a function of the gearing and tires. The M3's 6-speed allows for much shorter gear ratios, which provides greater torque multiplication (hence acceleration) at the expense of top speed in that gear.
The M3 has a 3.62 final drive with a SHORT 4.23 1st gear. Multiply these times the peak torque (then subtract about 15% for driveline losses) means you have about 3500 ft-lbs of twist at its rear axle. The Mustang has a 3.55 final drive & taller 3.34 1st gear, twisting the driveshaft with 3225 ft-lbs.
The final theoretical factor is the rolling radius of the tires. The M3's 255/40R18's have a rolling radius of about 12.8" versus the stock Mustang's 235/55R17's 13.3" radius. Wheel thrust equals driveshaft torque / rolling radius. Therefore the M3 can be launched (if the driver dares to do so at 4900 RPM & the clutch is up to the task) with
3281 lbs of force, while the Mustang achieves 2910 lbs at 4500 RPM. Close, but not quite enough ASSUMING the drivers are equal.
Of course the distance of the "non-sanctioned" race is always a variable. The M3 must shift out of 1st at 36 mph, while the Mustang push on to 40 mph in 1st, allowing a chance to nose ahead while the M3 driver shifts (crucial to the result of this race). Likewise 2nd gear is done at 61 mph in the M3 & 68 mph in the Mustang...beyond that, please take it to the track!
At $60,000 the M3 damn well better perform better. However I would gladly take a tiny fraction of the $30,000 in change to install a CAI with SCT2 tune and a 4.10 gear. The former gave me another 30HP (and raised my fuel cutoff to 6800 RPM). Swapping the gear too would result in 3,570 lbs of thrust, more than enough to dispense with the M3 (and just about anything on the road short of a new Z06)...all for the price of a loaded minivan.