As the EPA gears up to write regulations on manmade greenhouse gas production, EPA administrator Lisa Jackson said yesterday, "If EPA is going to talk and speak in this game, the first thing it should speak about is whether carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare. It is a very fundamental question."
OK let=92s do. Human activity accounts for about 5% of annual global CO2 production. The United States accounts for about 20% of the human contribution, or about 1% of the annual global total. The annual global total causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase at a rate of about 2 parts per million (ppm) per year. The United States therefore contributes about .01 ppm per year. (The great bugaboo of the entire Warmist movement is the estimate that atmospheric CO2 has risen about 100 ppm since the advent of the Industrial Revolution about 150 years ago (i.e., from 280 to 380).)
In exchange for the United State=92s .01 ppm per annual contribution to annual global CO2 production, we get a life expectancy of 78 years, compared to 45-50 in the Third World. We get infant mortality of 6.3 per 1,000 live births, compared to about 100 in the Third World. We get =93under-five=94 mortality of 7.7 deaths per 1,000 live births, compared to about 200 in the Third World. Also, the technology that American CO2 production has created has bestowed incalculable similar benefits world-wide, including in the Third World.
So let=92s cancel 100% of our annual contribution. Let=92s shut down modern technology completely. What would be the effect of that choice on the =93very fundamental question=94 of =93human health and welfare? Well, =93the science is settled=94 that slowing the annual increase in CO2 concentration by .01 ppm would have no effect whatsoever on the global temperature. On the other hand, if we duplicate the experience of the Third World, a 100% shutdown will cut our life expectancy by 40%, increase infant mortality by 1,600%, and increase deaths of children under age five by 2,500%. That sounds pretty much like endangering human health and welfare.
Is a proposal to reduce American CO2 by 100% a straw man? Of course it is. But what level of reduction promises any health benefits at all? The only health benefit the Warmists can point to is to slow the rate of global warming. But if a 100% reduction in the American contribution will have no effect at all on the rate of global warming, and if any reduction causes even miniscule level of damage to =93human health and welfare,=94 it follows that any reduction is a net negative.
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