Because there is no will do it because cheap labor is available.
Who is talking protectionism? It's bad decision making to shift the means of production overseas. Protectionism is not the way to stop it.
Not arguing for those. However that doesn't change the fact that making nothing will leave us very very poor in the end.
Engineering labor is cheaper in china. The jobs are going. When I was downsized, my job description appeared on the corporate website for Malasia(sp?). Also, once you teach engineers in china etc what you know, the company doesn't need you any more. Not to mention the Chinese engineers can then work/start new companies that put your employer out of business. When you talk service economy, it's all going to be sales in one form or another.
It's not a merging. China isn't in it for a happy merging. It's going for taking over.
We have illegal immigration because the powers that be want to use it to drive down wages in the USA. A bunch of guys sitting in lawn chairs can manage to close down the boarder, than the US military can certainly do it.
Exactly, they are in it to take over and grab the US by the balls.
It's already well beyond consumables. And guess who taught them every step of the way? US and other western and japanese companies.
Um, you might think it works that way, but they have us by the balls.
There is no such thing as free and unfettered markets. Markets are always fettered. Corporations use governments, buy governments to get advantages. Regulations being passed to prevent new competitors is an old practice that covers everything from the local undertaker to the big oil companies.
To keep manufacturing of many goods like textiles, toys, cheap electronics etc. will require protectionist policies. I doubt we even have enough workers to manufacture half of what we consume. Part of the reason our standard of living is so high is because of cheap imports.
We don't "make nothing". We create/design products and provide services to the rest of the world. Just because a product is manufactured overseas doesn't mean it is conceived and engineered overseas.
There is a huge demand in this country for engineers and technicians. Any engineer that looses their job can have a new one in just a few days. One of this countries biggest problems is that we have turned the engineering professions into careers that are seen as occupied by nerds. Plus much of the youth of today aren't willing to work hard enough to become an engineer or scientist. IMO, the dumbing down of our population is much more a threat to our way of life than loosing manufacturing jobs overseas.
It is a merging. They are contracted by USA companies to manufacture products designed here and they ship those products to us. Truth is they need us as much as we need them. This action is causing our economies to intertwine and merge. They are not going to take us over. They are trying to make money off us just like we are trying to make it off of them.
We have illegal immigration because Mexicans can't find gainful employment in their own country. I bet they would rather have a good paying job in Mexico than living here with no identity and minimal rights.
I doubt this is true. They aren't doing any more to us than we are doing to them.
Give the Chinese some credit. They have done a phenomenal job with their economy considering the problems they face with overpopulation and coming out of 40-50 years of totalitarian communist rule.
Um, just how do they have us "by the balls"? They are going to be fierce competitors. Personally, I'm not afraid of competition. It is a good thing to have in a capitalist society.
Protectionism, in the end, only hurts the country that practices it.
Those that don't modify their behavior will see their standard of living decline. Unfortunately, too many people won't change until they have no other choice. The autoworkers are a prime example of this. Just in the Washington, DC area there are over 25,000 high paying tech based jobs that are unfilled. Many of them can be had by just attending a community college in the evenings for a couple of years.
You're not dealing with a personal mentality.... you're dealing with a mob (union) mentality... "we got 'em by the balls".....
FWIW... let's say that Rich was suddenly faced with a 20% salary cut...
I don't work on an assembly line... I'd rather die first. Imagine.... some dork in a Robert Hall suit telling you that you have 12.8 seconds to perform this task.... and that it has to be performed well... It's a toss up.... I'm sure that the UAW has a pretty good hold on Fords (or anyone elses) nuts.... but I'm also sure that the favour is returned... Like lawyers, union bosses make out pretty good from someone elses misery.
I do work in a flat rate shop.... Some dork that gets manicures tells me that a task will take 5.2 hours...... I've done this task several times and, to date, my best time is 6.4 hours and I was getting on "borderline sloppy".... Could Rich explain how anyone could justify spending 40+ hours at work, but getting paid for 36?
There are areas to be attacked... like GM paying workers to not come to work.... something set up by trade unions - not by GMs request...
Ahhh, I'm starting to see the light... assembling automobiles is best left to unskilled labour.... I like that.... loose nuts, missing cotter pins. Quality is bad enough with what the bean counters have done to skilled labour... Imagine what it could be if someone with a masters degree is dozing on the line waiting for the french fry dinger to go off....
I started down the line to try and answer some subthreads as I happened upon them.... WTF... I been gone for three days... doomed to a hotel room dial up connection as I attend yet another Ford school.... Interactive Vehicle Dynamics, Rich... three days of intense instruction that presupposes previous exposure to much of the course content.
Is the F150 selling well... yes and no... certainly the Japanese have new offerings in direct competition with this niche... something they never had in the past. Ford is bleeding in light of some of the latest concerns.... the DPFE sensor warranty extension, the cruise control switch, multiple concerns with the 6.0 DIT.... With all the new technology coming down the pipe, I'm sure we'll see more in the future. One over-riding cause is the consumer... demanding more and more features - useless or not... the battle cry, sometimes, seems to be "look at my toys...".
Ford has cut SLTs (Standard Labour Times) to the bone.... just to make my time, I have to run instead of walk... I have to bust a sweat at everything I do and my air tools are a necessity instead of a bonus.... I work through my coffee break to try for a little "gain" time. If I work too fast and miss something, I get a little treat called a "chargeback...". Do you get "chargebacks"? They show up as -X hours on your pay stub....
How can we reduce costs?? Talking to one tech in my group at school... he's been through a divorce in the last couple of years. His ex-wife called her lawyer requesting a certain household item.... net cost - $150 +GST..... Her lawyer called his lawyer.... yep, $150 +GST.... His lawyer called him.... OOOOOh, we can see where this is going.... $150+GST.... FWIW, the household item was a $15.00 whicker basket.
I have no idea what you do for a living... I'm not really sure I have the desire to know more about you... for the most part, you live a "Chicken Little" life.... constantly crying that the sky is falling and proceed to reveal that you have little understanding of those things you discuss....
Your time might be better spent finding out why gas prices have skyrocketted (and don't trot out this hurricane bullshit... it is supply and demand and has nothing to do with production costs...).
This is not knocking anything you point out, but the above part about unskilled labor and loose parts reminded me of an undercover expose' on assembly line work. In the auto world, and it happened to be a Ford Mustang line, the car goes through getting all it's pieces parts and inspections, then it reaches the end of the line and somebody jumps in and drive it over and parks it in a line. Except, sometimes, the steering wheel comes of in the drivers hands, and he just shoves it back, drives over and parks just like he did with all the rest.
An old supervisor of mine worked on an assembly line sharpening steak knives, and tossing them into a bin/try. He said it reached a point where he could sleep in a sort of hypnotic state and still meet production quotas. He also said that quite often, the knives got sharpened on both the cutting edge and the back edge.
And these examples are of skilled labor. Assembly lines are killers.
I try to recall what company it was... Saab maybe... where they did away with the assembly lines ol' Henry ford pioneered, and went to a team concept. Each team builds a car. As each part is installed, the team member marks it with his or her mark. Reportedly, they have found that the pride in craftsmanship soars under this concept.
Sooner or later, everyone will have to "change their whole lifestyle". In developed countries, we'll have to get by with one car. In underdeveloped countries, they will have to trade in their bike or motorcycle on a car. We'll have to take pay cuts. They'll have to get huge raises. We'll have to watch the real estate bubble burst. They'll add on to their hut and watch it's value sky rocket. We'll get laid off. They'll work all the OT they want.
This is what a global economy does! It levels the playing field. Let us hope it goes slowly so the ride is gentle to us.
You really want to get into the nitty gritty of it? Because I have the experience of having the product I was developing made in China, USA, Germany and the UK.
China has costs you're not even considering and that most MBAs don't consider either.
No, it doesn't. It only requires those in charge of the companies to choose differently.
We could simply make things better so they last and are not disposable crap for one. There are lots of ways to skin a cat.
The USA will soon be that way.
I don't think you grasp the volume of engineers graduating in India and China alone.
Ultimately, the wealth from moving money around, buying and selling stock, etc and so forth comes from creating something.
Here's a clue for you, I am mechanical engineer. I've worked in product design/development for the last 9 years. Products I have worked on have been sold world wide. I am well aware of cultural differences, manufacturing methods, etc and so forth. I am also aware of the US corporations slowly replacing their US based engineering staff with much cheaper engineering staff that lives where the factories are. They are begining to realize that the constant travel back and forth is costly and are growing their overseas design centers. US corporations are also farming out more and more design work to companies in other parts of the world. They are outsourcing the designs. ODM product.
My former employer was having a good number of products ODM'd. The development staffs were gone, just leaving a few project engineers to make 'are you done yet' phone calls and the like.
I haven't looked for a job in awhile, but I haven't seen anything like a 'huge' demand.
When I was downsized in 2002 it took 6 months. And there were a goodly number of engineers out of work.
That's a different problem entirely. However those people they bring in from overseas to fill in at peak demand times are also willing to work for less.
They hold considerable portions of the federal government debt. They have a considerable portion of our manufacturing base. They have us by the balls. They can wreck our economy practically on demand now and are only getting stronger.
That might be true if it was government that had to be accountable to the people of the nation in some respect. But since China's government doesn't, they don't need us as much as we need them.
That's why they wanted the missile technology and the radation hardened electronics..... because they are so friendly.
If they couldn't come here and displace people from their jobs by working for less, then the question of their economy at home would be moot.
It will likely come to a head over taiwan.
Have you done product development work for stuff made over there? I have. They have to be watched and corrected at every turn to get anything better than crap.
Coming out of ? Still in. The connected military and party members are the ones getting rich.
See above, federal debt, the manufacturing base, etc and so forth.
I am not arguing for protectionism. I am arguing for responsible long term decision making instead of closing factories for a illusionary savings and a small temporary increase in stock price.
I came up with a saying from the product development side... that the product has to go together as if it were being built by ham fisted monkeys with sledge hammers. I have been astounded with some of the things people do on the line stupidity wise and I've never had to deal with a product as large and complex as a car. I wish I could expect skilled assembly people, it would make my life much easier.
That might be, but that does not mean that all those people forced to change shall go willingly into the night... Maslow pretty well hit the nail on the head with regard to what motivates people.
Nature has a way of balancing things. Up to now, man has been able to stave off nature. But, sooner or later, something comes along. Major wars occur on an average of 50 years. Disease about every hundred years. Ice ages every 100,000 years (or some such), and a total reversal of the earths polarity about every 300,000 years as I recall. That still leaves the cycle of super volcano's, and other natural events.
Everyone talks about the green house... people should study the progress of the polarity reversal when it is projected that for a period of time solar radiation will not be blocked. Already a large area in the southern Atlantic is apparently changing. And it is the subject of debate whether or not astronauts and passengers and crews in high flying airliners are already being subjected to increased levels of radiation.
The planet, if given the opportunity, heals itself. If not given the opportunity, it seems it creates it's own.
So, in the end, we may not need to worry about global economy... for we may be the next to become petroleum... : 0 )
That would be a decision you would have to make when and if you were faced with it. Not everyone has the luxury to be able to suddenly absorb reduced or no medical coverage, less money coming in to pay the house note, the car note, etc. Many, or perhaps most, Americans live charged to the hilt. No thought of tomorrow. Ford and GM and their employees are all guilty of this planless philosophy.
To survive, we all have to work together. Workers have to realize they cannot strangle the source of their income. Management must realize it cannot hog the profits, fail to lead, pat each other on the back and vote executive bonuses.
It isnt them versus us...it is 'we' that have to get such a job done.
Low quality, displacement of manufacturing, loss of ability to be independent. And that doesn't even touch job loss.
You might think that just providing 'services' and making investment money is enough... the real wealth will always be with the creation.
Savings are not passed on. The market price is the market price. The so called savings of china based manufacturing go to profit. I say so called because there are other costs that are not considered which wipe out a considerable portion of the gains.
There are other ways to reduce costs besides going to china and the 3rd world for manufacturing.
You seem to think that 'better' is always chosen. Humans often do not choose what is better. They do what is popular. They do what will get them the best short term gain. 'better' overall has nothing to do with the decision, that's the problem.
Just lowest price generally. The public seems to enjoy replacing things frequently so long as the price is low. The fact that it would be cheaper long term to buy a more expensive higher quality item doesn't register with most people in the USA. And then when they lose their job to the third world they complain without examining their own purchasing habbits.
Hmm... I am posting this remotely from a 1993 NextStation.
I don't have a single box that is less than 5 years old.
I have a car that is almost 9 years old and another that is 32 years old.
Advertising tells them they have to have the newest thing. Even though the newest thing doesn't do much more if anything than what they already have. I use things for a long time and make quantum leaps.
No, it's that way because that is how companies have made it because that generates the greatest profit. It is incredibly wasteful and cannot be sustained with continuing population growth.
You are the one arguing for sending all manufacturing overseas. We will end up making nothing eventually. I don't know why you babbled on about economic flexibility, because that wasn't part of the statement. We will eventually make nothing or next to nothing following these trends. True it will probably bottom out somewhere, but the USA will become so dependent upon other nations for even basic survival, we will be in load of hurt.
Why? There aren't going to be any jobs for them here under your model of shifting manufacturing overseas. Companies realize the problems having development teams thousands of miles from the factories and are solving that problem by hiring engineers locally to do the product design and development. Instead of training an expensive new engineer in the USA and having the problems of being remote, they will use their existing engineering staff to train the people they can hire locally.
BULLSHIT. The last piece of consumer electronics I worked on had a good hunk of the team downsized out of the company while more product got ODM'd. They downsized the most verstile and qualified technical people and kept the people that were best at doing ODM management type work.
Because you cannot outsource bridge building. The bridge, highway, building, whatver has to be where it's used. It doesn't make sense to hire an engineer in china in your field. In my field, product development, it makes sense to get engineers in china knowledgable and then trim down the US staff to bare bones. Manufacturing engineers, those who work in the factories are useless thousands of miles from the factory. They are all hired locally.
You keep trying to introduce new arguements, I didn't say there weren't new opertunities. Sure, I could become lots of things from an auto mechanic to a stock trader, I could be a mortgage broker, I could sell hot dogs, I could buy a subway franchise, I could start a grocery store... This isn't about opertunities to make money in some other area. It's about the consquences of losing the manufacturing base.
You think we need more technically literate people. Well, how are you going to encourage kids to put in the effort to become engineers when the bulk of it is going overseas.
Short haul it's not a problem. Long haul, when we find we don't make much of anything, it will be.
Nice try, but the fact remains without a manufacturing base we will be screwed.
You just don't see the problem with not making anything. By being dependent upon other nations that aren't exactly friendly. It's a me first, f*ck you world and when they can f*ck us over for their gain they will. Plain and simple. >>> There is a huge demand in this country for engineers and technicians.
What is made in washington DC? It's government buracrats.
Like I told you before, bridge building can't be moved to china. I am in product development. That's going overseas and you're being cheerleader for it claiming that somehow it's not harming the job market for engineers here in the USA as companies open design centers in bejing.
Depends on what your end goal is. If we view this as an economic war, victory may require loses. It's especially easy when you don't have to accountable to the people of the nation.
6~
At some point the USA won't be providing anything they need. Just a bunch of greedy MBAs and lawyers and various layers of redunant management.
Not talking stealling and spying. This stuff was outright sold. (some of it illegally, but sold none the less)
It moved beyond lettuce picking a long time ago. And if they didn't exist there would be more mechanization, more automation to do those tasks. But a supply of cheap labor keeps that from happening. Meanwhile what were once good paying jobs that US citizens would do no longer pay that much.
Union rules are a problem. But cost 50% more? How, the cost of building the house itself isn't the big part of it, the land is.
You mean that companies need to have a way around the insane union rules, minimum wage laws, and oppressive OSHA regs. Instead of having illegal immigration so there are people that they don't have to follow the rules for we could make the rules workable instead.
And when China has the USA in such a bind they will take it. The USA could then leave taiwan fend for itself or we can go to war. It's lose-lose for the USA. China becomes top dog. And that's the end game.
Um no. If you'd done it, you'd know how foolish that statement is.
No they aren't.
Again not arguing for being rigid and unchanging. Stop trying to put words into my mouth, it's getting very annoying.
Absolutely! Learn more. Be more productive. Work smarter, not harder. It's what we've been doing for decades! That's what I'm doing to keep my paycheck.
But there *may* come a time when someone will do it a lot cheaper than you or me. So cheap, that "the company" will move "over there", move them here, or outsource it.
My brother *was* a highly paid mechanic for U.S. Air a few years ago. Now into the second bankruptcy, he's an average paid mechanic. U.S. Air, my brother, Delta, United, and probably hundreds of thousands of airline employees cannot spend nearly as much as they did a few years back. The U.S. car companies are in the same boat. Delphi, the largest car parts maker in North America, just went into bankruptcy. They are preparing to break the unions back, cut wages and salaries to the bone, decimate their pensions, cut the bennies, and reduce headcount like you won't believe. They are not just fighting for survival, they must change their structure so they are economically justified. Right now, they are not. Just wait until China or India start producing a decent car and they market it here! Then, the shit will hit the fan.
I work in the chemical industry. Most chemical plants built in the last 5 years and in the future will be built in the Middle East or Asia. That's where the cheap raw materials are. North America's chemical industry is largely natural gas based. In $/lb of contained carbon it's about the most expensive source of raw materials in the world. I can see my future being more and more uncertain.
Don't forget about all that trickle down effect money that comes from the manufacturing sector, which is what made us what we are today. Remember when textiles was big business? No more. Remember when steel was big business? No more. Whats next? Autos, computers, chemicals, airlines, aluminum, etc., etc.
If you had to chose between paying a person $5/day or $30/hr, what would you do? That much difference can justify a lot of training, moving the location, and other stuff.
If it were not for the fact that life is so cheap in some of the developing countries, I doubt India would want another Union Carbide disaster. But, it seems that India's population growth is now faster than China. And just as long as nobody hurts a cow....
Airbus, and a number of others are hitting hard. China is set to begin building it's airliners. Only special technologies (like the ones we get from the aliens out at Area 51 - LOL) keep things in check in specialized areas.
My dad had to lay off all his employees and close his doors after 26 years because he could not compete with the biggies like WallyMart and Circuit City. Other local, long time businesses have been wiped out by Office Depot, etc.
Our corporations have lived on arrogance for decades. We've been king of the world. Unfortunately, we have been short sighted. Where our corporations plan for 5 or 10 years ahead, China, Japan and others plan for 50 to 100 years. It makes little difference to them how long it takes to achieve a goal. It's a totally different mind set than the west (which includes Europe). Much in the same way others outlook on life and death to totally foreign to us that it's hard to understand people teaching their kids to commit suicide in order to kill an enemy.
You seem to project the idea that everything is black or white, good or bad... when it's really many shades of gray spanning the gap between a fine line of black at one end and white at the other.
You also seem frustrated by others not seeing the world as you do. People are not the same everywhere you go. I don't mean physically. I mean culturally. In Vietnam, the NVA knew the American mind set. Protect old people, women, children and the infirm. For that reason, they would send waves of each at us, and many US troops hesitated and died. Then they would send the crack troops. Western cultures don't conduct war that way. The same is true in business. Just as in many parts of the world, bribes to get business conducted is the norm.
And when you ignore what is normal human behavior in one society; and which may be quite different in another, you expect things to be easily changed. History repeatedly shows man's nature. It's not going to be changed overnight. In fact, i doubt it will every be changed until the world actually faces a crises which is beyond us. Contact with an alien race bent on invasion... a comet on a collision course with earth... whatever... Even then, if the calamity is avoided, man will probably revert to his primal nature.
Both of you guys (Brent and Michael) are engineers but you guys are mired in discussing things as they exist today.
A couple of factors I think you are missing. First is the ability of the US government to inflate or deflate the currency as it sees fit. I'd like to point out that in the early to mid 1980's, the Japanese yen was
250-275 yen to the dollar IIRC. Today it is about 108 yen to a dollar. (Figures off the top of my head..but you're all engineers here..."close enough" as most of you say) Japanese goods are much more expensive today than they were in the 1980's, hence Japanese companies have found it cost competitive to build factories for Toyota, Nissan and Honda here in the US.
Today the Chinese Yuan trades at a fixed rate of 8 Yuan per buck. This will not last forever. Eventually either China floats the Yuan or a trade war breaks out and Chinese goods get the shit taxed out of them and the next country (probably India at this point in time, but who really knows...anything can happen...another 9/11....unexpected conflict or major war with China over Taiwan, North Korea, Iran or Syria or major uncontrolled disease pandemic ala avian flu) If (most likely when) Chaia floats the Yuan, Chinese goods will be more expensive in the way Japanese goods have. So trade with China, and eventually India is not
*ALL* that bad. I say not *ALL* that bad because China is still communist and still has controlling interest in *ALL* business entities. The communist Chinese goverment owned 51% of most if not all major industries. And here's the rub (simply as I see it...)
Asymmetrical warfare...we may be engaged (even unbeknownst to us) in a war with China, where they finance our insatiable debt (the Japanese are also a major purchasor of our debt). They (our debt purchasors) are financing our housing/real estate boom. So those home equity lines of credit used to finance the purchasing of crap from walmart etc....the free ride is financed by Chinese communists. And while some may think I need to adjust my tin foil hat (AFDB design here -
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) the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) (you remember them - in 1989 they put down the protest in Tienamen Square) has produced a document in 1999 called "Unrestricted Warefare" by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. Link to PDF version:
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Google Unrestricted Warfare Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui for similar resilts.....
But getting back to the issue of free trade, and US manufacturing I think free trade is good in some respects but we need to keep an eye out and not sell our souls for cheap toys, shirts and shoes.
"In hindsight, the extent of the auto industry's contribution to the war effort [Note - WWII to you youngins] is staggering to contemplate. Consider that between 1918 and 1935, only 35 tanks were produced in the United States. By the end of WWII, the tank production total was more than 88,000. Between Pearl Harbor and the surrender of Japan, nearly
275,000 aircraft were built. But perhaps the most telling impact is this: In 1939, less than two percent of the United States' gross domestic product was devoted to military production. By 1944, the corresponding GDP figure was 40 percent."
We beat the Germans AND the Japanese in less than 4 years of entering WWII (granted with ALOT of help from other Allies - Notably the Soviets and the British)
If all your industrial manufacturing is overseas, the unineteded consequences are devastating to national security. Especially if the Chinese are trying to outmanuver us via whats called Asymetrical warefare (computers, economics, induistrial espionage etc) Move enough stuff overseas there'll be NOBODY here to build the weapons needed to protect us.
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