Re: Fuel Price

> lack of current supply and ever increasing demand :-)

> > That might be true if... it was true.

Here we go again.

> Supply is fine, and demand is steady, according to all reports I've read.

LOL, unless those reports were written TODAY, they really don't mean shit. If the supply is fine as you say, why would the President be considering opening some of the national oil reserve?

> This years surge is being driven by the futures market, not the consumer > market. >

If the price was purely based on people in the futures market speculating to drive the price up, the possibility of the President opening up the reserves would cause the price to plummet and that didn't happen. Perhaps you missed that hurricane yesterday and the damage it caused to some major supply lines.

Reply to
TBone
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Some of those reports were written today. Find me anything that says there is a shortage of oil. All I've read says, theres no shortage, just a huge investor pool that likes to speculate.

As to the president, we all know why he's considering it. Political favor, insurance in keeping a good economy, etc. But I doubt it'll have any real effect on pump prices, since there is plenty of oil to be had.

You missed it, the price DID drop over $2 a barrel on that news, and DESPITE the hurricane not suddenly disappearing. Damage to major supply lines, maybe, but all the refinery spokespeople are claiming minor damage.

Reply to
Max Dodge

You seem to miss something here, Max. There was over a million barrels per day refining production shut down along the coast prior to the hurricane hitting. That is lost gas/diesel/jet/ production prior to the storm.

Then the storm hits and does whatever damage to the facilities it does. If it were heavy damage, it would take months to repair. If it were minor damage, then they only have to do system checks and get rid of the gators and snakes and make it safe to operate again. This could be days of inspection, testing and repair, if you had full crews and extra contractors.

In the days of a regular plant shutdown/turnaround, all this workforce worked there butts off and went home after their shift or to the motel. Hello? The homes are gone. There are no hotels. Most of the infrastructure is gone. It is difficult to start a refinery with nobody to run it. Lots of companies are helping the communities by bringing in basic needs. Without that, people won't be able to work.

Some of you out there think all you have to do is turn a key and a refinery starts. This ain't your sweet Dodge Ram CTD. LOL! Depending on the particular unit, it may take a week to 10 days to come up online and make on-test product. That is when no problems occur during startup. Some facilities took most of a month after the last hurricane went through Mississippi.

Gasoline shortage? You will get your gasoline after the refiners outbid someone else for the tanker load of gas. Maybe you ought to feel good that you have a vehicle to put it in. Thousands in the South no longer do.

Reply to
FMB

Didn't miss it at all, and apparently neither did the market, as the price on the trading day before landfall hit a high just over $70, and then dropped back just below $68 a barrel. If you read what I wrote, you'd see that I didn't miss that part, since I used that pricing to rebut a comment exactly like yours.

True, but "days of inspection" are better than months of no production. According to what I was hearing mid afternoon, damage was "minor". Again, I said that before.

Ok, so the companies spend some of their profits and create the services needed to support employees. Not a huge hardship, given the size and resources of these companies.

Great, so its a month instead of six. Again, We're talking about things I already noted.

I'l repeat myself, I do not believe, based on almost all reports I've read and heard, that there is any shortage of motor fuel in this country. And yes, I feel good that I have a vehicle to put it in. Take note (because obviously you haven't) I have yet to complain about the cost of fuel. Do I like it? No. But at this point, I'm doing ok with it, and have no real hardship. Perhaps you should take that into account next time you decide to lecture me with a guilt trip.

Reply to
Max Dodge

A very small amount to help local refineries effected in the region. Not to control gas prices which it will not do.

No it won't. That was the Dems stupid attempt to lower prices by releasing oil from the reserves a few years back. How much oil do you believe are in the reserves anyways? Bush has said he may approve releasing to help local refineries effected. Not to try to lower prices by increasing supply. Geez.

There are 954 platforms in the gulf coast region. 12 were shut down as of sunday afternoon. Those 954 platforms account for 40% of the domestic oil output. The small amout from the closed platforms is what is to be replaced from the reserves to supply refineries that are otherwise uneffected by the hurricane. There is not enough in the reserves to plummet prices as you seem to believe.

The gas price rises are because of the futures market. Prices have risen rapidly since Jan. 1, not just since the hurricane. During that time from Jan.1 supplies and stocks have been steady. I would have thought you of all people would be spewing that the corporate run oil companies that make so many Reps rich are to blame. Oh ya, that was last years rants. This year it's high demand from greedy Reps.

Reply to
miles

I remember my younger days I did a temp job on a Mobil Oil turnaround. They had to wait a while before crews could start work on it. 2 weeks later they turned the unit back on and after about 10 days it was too hot for anyone to work on it anymore. End of job

Reply to
GeekBoy

Well said, sarcasm understood. By me, anyway...... doubt if Tbone will get it.....

Reply to
Max Dodge

654 million barrels. Since the USA uses 19.5 million barrels a day for everything the small amount released from the strategic reserves just might drop the price at the pump a half cent per gallon or so. There are hundreds of ships still on the high seas loaded with crude that haven't even reached port yet but their cargo continues to gain in value because of market speculation.
Reply to
Jerry

The futures market tells me all I need to see. Unless supplies in the NEAR future are going to be strained, the price cannot be driven up like that and the news today backs me up.

Once again, you are completely wrong. 3 Refineries are under water and will not be restarting any time soon, there is currently NO production in the gulf at all, the mars platform is severely damaged and will probably be down for months and an entire 50 million dollar rig is MISSING. Now the President has said that he WILL tap the strategic reserves which would (if the price was driven up by pure speculation) cause a major price drop and again, that didn't happen. A $2.00 price drop means NOTHING and today, the price held at $70 a barrel.

speculating

There tune has now changed and $2 a barrel doesn't mean shit, not when we are up $20.

Reply to
TBone

If the price is being driven up purely by speculation, any release from the stragic oil reserves will just about erase it due to investor fear. You can also add in the fact that unless supplies are already strained, there would be no major increase in price due to speculation because the risk level would simply be WAY TO HIGH.

speculating to

I think that you need to review the futures market a little bit.

I never said that he intended to reduce the cost although doing it would boost the economy. He is doing it because the shortage due to the hurricane is real and is the reason for the sudden jump in prices, not just greedy investors.

As of this morning, Shell announced that NONE of its platforms are producing in the gulf.

And if the transportation network is damaged, under water, and for the most part unusable, where is this oil going to go.

Yawn, investors tend to panic, especially if supply is good and is being increased. There does not have to a major addition of supply to cause that to happen.

And the futures market is based on supply and demand. If the supply exceeds the demand, the price does not skyrocket like it has in the past few months.

Yea, but at just about 100% production levels.

Oh, stop crying Miles. It is a combination of both and not just the Reps.

Reply to
TBone

LOL, any port in a storm, huh Maxi.

Reply to
TBone

And where exactly are these tankers going to unload and how is that going to help the Midwest?

Reply to
TBone

You didn't miss it, you simply didn't understand it. $2 is chump change and means nothing.

Then you heard wrong. Until they get the flood water out of the way, there is no way to inspect and no idea how bad the damage really is so most of the reports that you hear right now are wishful thinking and simply bullshit.

It is a HUGE hardship as much of the area is still under water and there is no way to get building supplies into these areas. Then you can add the facts that there is no electricity, drinking water, or shelter nearby for the construction crews either and the problem becomes much larger than you want to see.

Reply to
TBone

Um, no, they had weeks, its hurricane season, and they knew a week in advance that Katrina was coming into the gulf. Thus, they had at least ten days to figure it out, maybe more. I'm sure they have their own meteorological staff that helps them keep track of such things.

As to the damage, I'm STILL not seeing anything that says the damage was more than minor to these refineries.

What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in the U.S.

Its a big country, and since Texas has terminals, as do states along the east coast. If the oil companies felt they had a problem, you can bet the tankers would be sent elsewhere to off load.

Ok, so who says it'll be months?

Ahh yes, the ol' "you don't know what you're talking about, and neither do I, so I'll just insult you and leave my defense of my statements at that."

How original.

It is that simple.

Wrong. You obviously don't know how the market works. These people are buying a stake in the FUTURE of oil production, expecting that their investment will bear a return. They aren't buying a supply, they are buying (and risking) on a product yet to be produced.

I have, but it seems you have not.

The key word being "BELIEVED".

But in the case of fuel, they keep buying, don't they? Thus, the spiral goes on.

Except for that little word you used, "BELIEVED" ..to be in short supply.

Got a source on this? I keep hearing "minor damage".

Rubbish. 900+ platforms, and no production?

Paranoia reins supreme it seems. You're good at listing damage, bu say nothing of whats still working. All your info is speculative, with no sources listed. I've been watching MSN, among others, and so far, no reports on huge oil related damages.

Up $20 from what point in time? Get it yet? This rise in price has been LONG TERM, not just from this week.

I'd like to see you sources on refinery damage.

Reply to
Max Dodge

Thanks for jumping through the same hoop twice.

Reply to
Max Dodge

Tell us why Gore wanted to tap the reserves when gas prices rose during his campaign? Tell us how it wasn't pure politics.

Geez TBone are you that ignorant? A puny release of US oil reserves to help a few local refineries isn't going to affect the global futures price of oil more than the $2 it did. Domestic oil prices flucuate only short term and will always follow the global futures market for the longer term.

Reply to
miles

Geez the ignorance on your part is just unbelievable. You really seem to think a puny amount of US domestic oil released is going to change global futures speculation.

Reply to
miles

Reply to
Steve Scott

While you are correct would you want one in your backyard?

Reply to
TBone

Sure they can put one in my backyard. Sell them the whole property and they can have the front yard too.

Seriously, there are MANY locati>While you are correct would you want one in your backyard?

Reply to
Steve Scott

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