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So much for the doom and gloomers

"s_knight8"

wrote in

news:d5fvih$ snipped-for-privacy@dispatch.concentric.net: > >> consolidate in a >> sideways pattern if not add to those recent gains. > > >in celebration of rosseroo 's robot reporter's glitch on Monday, I'll >participate in this thread with a limited number of keystrokes > >I concur with the sideways analysis of the major indices >> >> The ball and chain for this market is the price of oil, which is >> heading higher this morning. Crude is up 65 cents to $51.48 per >> barrel. It seems traders are ignoring the recent supply build because >> the long-term dynamics of the demand curve favor higher prices. As it >> is, we continue to recommend a strong portfolio weighting in energy >> stocks. >> >The administration's has been buying crude and replenishing the strategic >oil reserves all during crude's historic price rise. This volume has been >part of the overall American "demand" for crude. At this price peak we >have a supply buildup. Our oil men leaders need not pump out any strtegic >reserves to affect supply and prices, merely curtail the rate of crude >being dumped into the strategic supply

Okay, let's look at the numbers:

Amount of oil consumption worldwide: 56 million barrels per day Amount of China's oil consumtion: 6 million barrels per day ANNUAL Rate of growth of China's oil : +0.5 million bpd Amount flowing into strategic reserve: 0.1 million bpd

Anyone who thinks that is going to make a lick of difference is dreaming in Technicolor®. If prices are going up, it will just put off the increases for a matter of weeks or months. If they are going down, it won't make much difference either.

Reply to
·Spehro Pefhany Spehro
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Spehro Pefhany wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@4ax.com:

quite the celebratory week of posting, triggered by Tony Ross's robot reporter glitch in failure to post last week.

funny how on paper a 0.1 Mbpd strategic reserve flow looks so minisule, yet wall street would rally big time if a curtailment announcement were made.

thanks for the data Spehro

how's a 'bout if China un-pegs the renminbi from the dollar and floats their currency? I would reckon the dominos would end up falling as well as the price of oil? No?

Reply to
·ausound

So they can buy more oil with their RMB? Price last time I was there (a month ago) gas was around 4 kuai/litre depending on grade, or slightly under US prices.

I think a 5-10% increase in the RMB would not have much effect on anything. Maybe drive their consumption of imports up a bit, not affect exports much. I doubt they'd be stupid enough to let it appreciate like the Japanese let their currency go up, and anyway Chinese trade is pretty close to balanced as it is.

Let's see-- if consumption hardly affected by price, then price can keep rising (or falling). If supply is tight and if the only thing that will reduce consumption is a recession or depression, how far will they rise? Not sure I like where that's going. 8-(

Maybe there will be some good news out of Iraq for a change, and China and the US will slow down a bit.

Best regards, Spehro Pefhany

Reply to
·Spehro Pefhany Spehro

"Oh ye who have so little to celebrate ..." Let your imagination run wild.

Reply to
·ynotssor

Step back and read that for a moment ausound... Don't you view this as a bit neurotic?

Reply to
·TATrader

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