First Delphi....then GM....and then Ford in 2006..... Just WATCH AND SEE. Oh, all you GM and Delphi retirees had better get used to no health coverage or that nice monthly check in a short time also.
Here is a DIRECT Quote from the IF Newsletter 5 Months ago:
"You may not want to believe it but our economy has been in disintegration since 1989 and only one trick after another has salvaged it. Just look at the dollar. It is only reflecting the collapse of a once great economy. Soon the US dollar will cease to be the world's reserve currency. We have major corporations on the verge of bankruptcy, GM is a good example. As GM goes, so goes America and what is good for GM is good for America. Its debt will shortly be junk. Its supplier, Delphi, along with GM, is under investigation and will precede GM into bankruptcy. Potential retirees and pensioners are going to be in for a big surprise - l ike the loss of 65% to 75% of their pensions. GM has $50 billion in debt to refinance over the next 20 months. We do not believe the market can or will want to handle it. The market cannot even handle the Treasury refinancings. That means interest rates have to move, jeopardizing the future of the housing market and complicating and increasing the cost of debt service. There are many more complicating factors that are going to be moving into the forefront in the weeks and months ahead. Prepare yourself - it will be a difficult journey. "
(The above was written in June of 2005)
DELPHI USA IS DEAD - GET USED TO IT UAW BUNKIE !!
GMAC, General Motors Acceptance Corp., contributes about two-thirds of GM's profits. After three years of $5,000 rebates per car, which was double the sector average, car and truck sale growth is falling. GMAC's $260 billion debt is larger than all of that of the auto division combined. As you saw in the last issue, GM's euro bond issues are trading at a yield of over 11%, which is certainly junk quality. The money maker GMAC is faced with declining vehicle sales and has been a major investor in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages, thus, as interest rates rise and home prices fall, paper quality will come into question and mortgage volume will dry up, especially in cash outs and home equity loans. GMAC is facing a double-edged sword. At GM the most profitable sales unit is the SUV and with today's gasoline prices, they will suffer. Sales overall for January and February were off 11% despite having lowered prices in February. As you can see, the market is simply saturated with vehicles. GM lost $2.6 billion in Europe last year via Vauxhall, Saab and Opel and is laying off 12,000 workers. Since 1980 the auto workforce has shrunk by 70% due to deliberate de-industrialization and, of course, thousands of smaller firms supplying the industry have been phased out with massive job losses.
In 2006, GM either will pay off or refinance $44.7 billion in debt and Ford has to do $37.1 billion or $174 billion in debt. Can the market handle that at junk levels or will they want too? That could be bonds with a 13-14% coupon. Will financial firms, such as GMAC continue the hobby of producing cars? We don't think so. Can you see how deadly offshore production, outsourcing and free trade and globalization has been for America? Our industrial heartland has been destroyed. Fundamentally both GM and GMAC are on a path to destruction as is Ford. Borrowing costs have just jumped from 7.5% to over 11%. Can they generate cash at these levels and still make a profit? Delphi, the GM parts spin off, is now embroiled in an Enron-type fraud scandal, which could indirectly reflect on GM. Delphi has already informed 4,000 of its salaried and retirees that it is ceasing to pay their health care plan. GM and Delphi layoffs are over 10,000. Suppliers are already at junk level and can only borrow from GMAC to stay in business. Ford's Visteon is in the same boat. The UAW is on a two-tier wage system to save money and avoid layoffs.
If all of that wasn't bad enough GM's pension fund is underfunded by $17 billion or is only funded to 80% of its obligations. This comes as George and the neocons push pension reform, better called, funding your plan. This is a debt bomb and Washington knows it. If reform passes Congress for the benefit of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., many companies will achieve junk status. GM wants to split off GMAC hoping to save GMAC. If that happens this year it is guaranteed GM will go into bankruptcy. PBGC is already $23 billion in debt and can not absorb the obligations to GM's hundreds of thousands of pensioners. This is a disaster of major proportions. Plus, they'll lose GM's pension insurance premium payments. Even if GMAC is spun off we do not believe they will escape attachment by PBGC. It should have been spun off three years ago.
(Of course Delphi Mexico and Asia will still be in business. Delphi USA and it's retirees are going into bankruptcy. Enjoy the ride folks! Money is GOD)