Green Fuels?

Just wait until biofuels impact on food prices hit the average Joe citizen. It is already occurring and if this whole biofuel debacle isn't stopped it will get much, much worse. All the hype that biofuel is as viable an alternative to oil as other alternative fuel sources like solar, hydro, geothermal etc. is about as grounded in logic, science and economics as is the environmentalists' global warming movement.

IMO, if we are go> Environmental lawsuits block ethanol expansion

Of course if we could drill sideways and suck the oil out from under the desert... at least until the middle east falls into the sinkhole.... that might not be a bad idea either.

One of these days, we're going to run out of oil. When is a question since nobody really knows how much there is down there. Before it gets to that point, there will be war.... MAJOR war.... for control of what little may remain.... unless an alternative is found. Thus nature's normal balance will be returned through the loss of so many billions of people.

All the programs the US government provides won't mean diddly. BUT, if a government program was instituted to convert to actually green power, combined with government incentives for homeowners, business owners, etc to convert to green solutions, we might last a bit longer.

The future kinda looks like the new movie release... "10,000BC" :0)

I say we just make Saudi Arabia the 51st state and let Exxon/Mobil suck the place bone dry.

There is more to fossil fuels than just oil and when you add coal, gas and all the various forms of crude oil (tar sands etc.) the currently known supply will last for hundreds of years. Then include the methane hydrate supplies in the ocean floor and that number bumps to well over

1,000 years. There is plenty of fossil fuel to last until we come up with a cheaper more environmentally friendly alternative.

I don't think war can remove several billion people from the planet. Plagues, viruses and starvation are Nature's most efficient ways of correcting imbalances. I don't see mankind bucking that trend forever.

Economics will drive the move to "green" fuels and energy sources. If the price of oil keeps rising it will happen sooner than later. China and India developing at a ferocious pace will insure it.

SNIP

While I agree there are additional resources, it's what can easily be converted that will go first, and when that form runs low the panic will be widespread. If you can't fly the planes, or power the ships, etc, for international trade, it's a major concern. Recall that the USA provides a wealth of the worlds breadbasket resources, just as Asia does the rice commodity. Starvation can drive people to do a lot of things.

I look back to the effects which drove Japan to WW2, no resources of their own.... and Germany (aside from bitterness over the WW1 armistice ) they too lack access to fuels.

Now the Russians, reverting to the old USSR ideals, are building pipelines into Europe which the Euros will become hooked on....

When the time comes, we won't be talking the wars of the past. As for the numbers, the following famines, diseases, climate change impacts, etc, will remove a good share.

But will it happen in time? I have grave doubts and I'm not exactly a pessimist. But we are living in dangerous times.

The oil won't just disappear one day. It will be a gradual process of less resources for more users. Also, at $100/barrel, there is a lot of oil in the ground that is financially feasible to retrieve at that price. We are seeing the beginning of serious transitions to renewable technologies. It will take several years to get to a point where it supplies an appreciable portion of our energy but it will occur. There is plenty of oil to go around while this transition takes place in this country and Europe.

The advent of nuclear weapons have changed changed the fundamentals of warfare. We haven't had a major war since the atomic age because there are no winners in a conflict where nukes are exchanged. Even with conventional warfare the weapons are so powerful, and precise, that large scale conflict is a net losing proposition for almost every country that would initiate it. China has too much infrastructure to lose in the event of a war as do we. One hundred well placed cruise missiles targeting dams, power plants, distribution networks etc. would wreak havoc on China as the same would on us.

Europe has made the most progress in going with renewable energy technologies. They are hooked on oil for now but 50 years in the future will be a new game for them, IMO, as it will be for us too.

When one looks at the pattern of population growth in countries with varying degrees of standard of living there is a very clear pattern that emerges. As the standard of living increases population growth slows and even turns negative at some point. This is seen in Europe, Japan and even the USA. We have a net population increase only due to immigration (both legal and illegal).

If mankind can keep it together while the standard of living for the rest of the world improves then our species footprint on the planet should start to recede. China is removing their one child policy because they see the effects an improved standard of living is having of population growth. Improvements in their overall standard of living is doing more to limit population growth than any government imposed policy. This phenomenon of reduced population growth tied to standard of living increases might just be what saves our asses in the long term.

I think it will happen in time. There are plenty of fossil fuels to go around for some time. We have a lot of oil we can go after here but the environmentalists have kept us from retrieving it. Add to this the eventual harvesting of methane hydrate and future finds of oil fields and we can extend our grace period for several decades, IMO. Just look at the technology increases we have seen during the last 100 years. Who in 1900 would have conceived the technology we have today? Think what will be around 100 years from now. I expect fusion reactors will be the norm.

Have you heard of the mining of helium3 from the moon? I watched a show about it the other day and it was fascinating. One space shuttle load of helium3 (50,000 lbs.) from the moon would supply the energy needs of the entire USA for one year. It is estimated that the moon has one million tons of helium3 in its top soil layer. Also, the Sun is the the ultimate source of helium3 and the reason the Earth has little of it is due to its magnetic field shielding us from the solar winds. Maybe the way of the future is to send out robot ships to circle the Sun to collect helium3 from the solar wind and then return to Earth. Now that would be a truly unlimited source of energy. Helium3 also produces very little radioactive byproducts and makes the fusion process much easier to achieve. Like I said, who can say what technology will be available to us in 100 years.