The price difference between a 2004 Prius and a comparably equipped traditional vehicle of similar size (in other words, right between a Camry & Corolla, termed "Camrolla" for easier comparisons) is about $3000.
All summer long (4,741 miles of driving in June, July, August), my classic Prius (a 2001) delivered a average of 50 MPG. My lifetime calculation after driving 57,350 miles in Minnesota (where the cold absolutely kills efficiency) over the last 3 years has yielded an average of 45.2 MPG.
The 2004 is much improved in efficiency design (it's bigger & cleaner too). So we can guestimate that it will deliver a real-world average (in the hostile conditions of Minnesota) of about 49 MPG.
In the same conditions, a "Camrolla" could only deliver a real-world average (in MN) of 28 MPG. (Remember, Prius shuts off its engine when dealing with extra heavy winter traffic caused by fresh snow on the roads. Traditional vehicles just keep running, which kills their efficiency.)
4,286 gallons is how much gas the "Camrolla" would consume for 120,000 miles of driving. At $1.65 per gallon, it would calculate to a total cost of $7,072.
2,449 gallons is how much a 2004 Prius would consume in the same
120,000 miles. At $1.65 per gallon, that comes to $4,041.
There's your $3,000 difference. And that's just in respect to gas savings, at what might become an unrealistically low price. At $1.85 per gallon, the difference grow to $3,398. At $2.00, it's $3,674. At $2.25, it's $4,133. And if you drive further than 120,000 miles, the difference grows even greater.
The battery-pack has proven to make it past 200,000 miles for one owner already. At that point, the ownership costs of traditional vehicles has added up. The Planetary-CVT design (and simplicity) should help to avoid the costs traditional automatic transmission ususally incur at that price. And the motor goes way out of its way to protect the engine from ever getting overworked. So basically, when all up all the costs, the difference between hybrid & traditional is a wash... for now. With spikes in gas prices and the expected lower costs of rechargable battery technology, hybrids will eventually show an economical advantage.
And that's completely ignoring the fact that they also reduce SMOG related emissions and our dependency on oil, which has to be worth something. (In fact, right now you get a tax deduction.) It also ignores the pleasure many have expressed from the sensation of driving using only electricity. The smooth & quiet nature is a benefit that warrants acknowledgement.
Arguments about "savings" are becoming weak now. Hybrids will win. Just wait until you see the first hybrid SUV owners celebrating about the incredible MPG they get. The appeal will attract many.
JOHN
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