Smart thinking is at work if Chrysler avoids jumping on the bandwagon to
> develop hybrids. Its a short-term fad that can't last.
>
> Do the math. Tax credits have a lot to do with it. If hybrids had to
> stand on their own two feet and not depend upon your (taxpayer) voluntary
> contributions to this subsidized program, it would already have fallen
> flat. Even with the tax credits is a bad deal. It will take you seven to
> ten years to recover the higher initial cost, if repair costs after
> warranty expiration don't eat up the savings in consumption. After that
> seven to ten year period of time, there is no way you are going to escape
> having to replace the sealed NiHydride battery pack. That will cost
> several thousand dollars, putting you back at square one. The net savings
> over the long run will be nil.
>
> I haven't driven a hybrid yet, but reports say its herky-jerky when the > gas
> engine kicks in and takes over from the electric drive motor. At highway
> speeds, I would anticipate LOWER mpg due to having to drag extra weight. >
> The extra complication has been noted by General Motors. Extra
> complication to me means more components to fail and service. Service is
> highly specialized and is likely to be much more expensive than pure gas > or
> diesel, which are already very expensive to maintain.
>
> Of all the parts in the system, the battery remains on my suspect list; we
> all know batteries deteriorate over time and use and are definitely not
> zero maintenance items over 7 to 10 year period of time. Manufacturers > are
> saying the battery pack is good for 100,000 miles, but this is misleading.
> If the test conditions are largely high speed test track running, then the
> motor and battery get little workout coupled with the fact that 100,000
> miles can be racked up in a month or less of continuous test driving. If
> the test conditions are mixed high and low speeds, the 100,000 miles can > be
> logged in two months. In the real world, a heavy usage driver might do
> 100,000 miles in a year (highway patrol) or three years (salesman). But > if
> you are a 12,000 mile a year driver, it will take 8 or 9 years to get
> there. Do you really believe the multi-thousand dollar battery pack will
> last that long or be fully functional at the end of that time. It is
> conceivable that even with a degraded battery pack, car engineers have
> designed the vehicle to rely more and and more upon the gas engine and > less
> and less on the electrics. Perhaps you start off with a hybrid and end up
> with conventional powered car with a "check engine light" glaring at you > interminally.
>
> That is not to say that some features of a hybrid might not be useful to
> improve upon conventional diesel power. Some hybrids have improved
> streamlining, reduced weight, and low friction tires. All this would go a
> long way towards higher performance with lower fuel consumption, which is
> the goal, along with reduced emissions. It seems to me this is what the
> public will gravitate towards, not hybrids.
>