Re: What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all
>Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to >be a very low number to me. What do other think? > >I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last >twenty years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the >last 20 years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing >over the last twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be >newer models. Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles >that are more likely to still be on the road, the overall percentage >of Toyotas sold in the last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the >newer car bias). For GM, the math works the other way. GM sales have >been stagnent or actually declining over the last 20 years, so a >higher percentage of their cars will be older and therefore less >likely to still be on the road. I am sure the 80% number is based on >registrations, so it might be that it over estimates the number >actually in daily use - or under estimates it in cases where cars are >used off road (or illeagally) and not registered. > >Does anyone have any actual numbers? I am confident that 100% of the >NEW vehicles I purchased in the last 20 years are still on the road, >but maybe I am an exception. > >Here is sort of what I am thinking.....NOT REAL NUMBERS -

I have real prod figures and real numbers on UK DVLA registration / taxation database.

Many cars don't get taken off the register. UK had a purge a few years back by swapping to a new style log book. Anyone selling a car got a new log book, then it was when they taxed the vehicle for the road and they had a final mop up where people that had un-taxed vehicles off the road could send in for new log book.

Taxation laws that require a vehicle to be declared as being off the road annually have also meant people are less likely to hang on to a project car or "doer up". As a declaration has been signed that the vehicle is off the road and thus not liable for road tax being caught with it on the road is tax evasion and not "oh sorry I must have forgot".

RHD European cars production numbers from NISSAN FAST database CD ER1, so UK + Ireland and a few for Cyprus - maybe 6 or 7% not for UK. Only the ones that came to UK will be on DVLA database. Bear in mind there's at least 2 months between cars being made and first sales, the boat trip takes 4-5 weeks. There was also overlap on RS13 and S14 as old stock ran out slowly, the DVLA made no distinction between S13 and S14 during the overlap. Limited number in first year will be pre-prod bucks and test mules.

Silvia RS12U FJ20E & CA18ET Year prod DVLA registered

1983 2 0 1984 3134 57 1985 2906 91 1086 2296 88 1987 690 119 1988 1009 100 1989 ---- 50

Looks like 505 out of 10037 = 5% over 20 years old.

200SX RS13U CA18DET Year prod DVLA registered 1988 532 0 1989 2822 338 1990 2088 487 1991 2978 594 1992 1827 575 1993 1267 441 1994 ---- 456 (S14 went on sale Sept)

I've got a Dec '93 built RS13U that was registered new in UK Dec '94, may even be some '95 reg. 11508 made, less than 2891 left, 25% of over

15 years and up to 20 year old cars.

200SX GBAS14U SR20DET Year prod DVLA registered

1993 16 1994 788 see RS13 1995 1298 508 (some could be old stock RS13U) 1996 425 552 1997 1178 569 1998 1143 605 1999 70 833 2000 ---- 508 2001 ---- 59

4848 made, of the last 455 made 26 went to Ireland and 5 to Cyprus.

3094 left so over 7 years old and up to 15 there's about 63% left.

The attrition rate is possibly higher than it would be for sad gray porridge. A leading UK car guide says of the RS13 "Dangerous in the wrong hands". Lots fall off roundabouts sideways, quite a few have gone though hedges anyways round or up, up trees, been wrapped round telegraph poles. At least one has knocked down and rail slid sideways the full length of a lamp post, driver said hitting his head on the roof rail above the door hurt a bit.

Don't ask about anything else, if it isn't an S platform I couldn't give a...