OT: diesel fuel: why isn't it cheaper than gasoline?

Nov 04, 2004 87 Replies

Home heating oil and diesel are virtually the same. There is always demand for the former in the winter nmonths when the old homes in the Northeast fire up their oil burning furnaces. This year it's compounded by high oil prices, and damage to platforms and refineries in the Gulf states due to the hurricanes. The pricing is giving a boost to bio-diesel producers, who used to have a big pricing disadvantage. However, here it's now virtually the same. Local scuttlebutt from diesel pickup drivers has been very positive on biodiesel.

If everyone tried to turn old burger grease into fuel, the burger grease supply would vanish. The OBG supply of the entire nation for a year wouldn't run LA for two days. But that's irrelevant to whether it makes sense for anyone to do it. If you are the only person in a small town or on the block in a city and you can get the OBG free and you want to do it for a hobby or out of curiosity that's well and fine. In some areas OBG costs McD's money to haul it off. One or two OBG burners could save everyone money then.

But if it was all dollars and cents why do you have a four wheel drive when a Honda Civic is cheaper and taking the bus cheaper yet?

All of that is all well and good, but it ignores the facts that refiners have made a conscious effort to cut back production and storage, thereby limiting supply in order to raise prices.

OK, maybe the conscious effort wasn't all that conscious, maybe it is reflective of regulatory mandates as well as mergers among the refineries and shippers. In any case, without any regulation otherwise, why would anybody sell two for a dollar when they can get away with selling one for two dollars? Why sell a gallon for a dollar when they can sell a half gallon for two dollars?

In any case, don't hold your breath waiting for energy prices to fall - ANY energy prices. They will only go up from here.

You have a different understanding of what "government regulation" means. Here under my rock, government regulation means that gasoline - and diesel - would not jump in a matter of days from $1.75 to $2.50, then slide all of the way back to $2.40 and hold steady for months. Under my rock, government regulation would not let gas prices jump while the underlying crude prices remained essentially flat - as was the case last April and May - while prices on the street went through the roof. And, under my rock, government regulation would not let prices on the street fall in a climate of rising prices of the underlying crude, as is what we are seeing today. I bought gas today for $2.37. Crude is over $50/barrel. I paid $2.50 in Apr/May when crude was below $40.

I live a pretty comfortable life here under this rock, and I apparently do not get out much. Under my rock, when government regulates things, the prices on the street are generally reflective of the underlying costs. Not always, but generally. Another thing with government regulation is, it generally costs 4 times as much and works half as good, where "it" is whatever the government happens to be regulating.

Bill is being really naive here. Ever heard of OPEC Bill? The WHOLE purpose of OPEC Is to engage in PRICE-FIXING. They're not an organization working for the good of humanity or to provide quality petro-products at fair-market values. They're an organization dedicated to raising the price of crude oil and keeping it as high as possible for as long as possible. Your buddy Bush is probably good friends w/all of them too.

-Bill (remove "botizer" to reply via email)

All I know is what I see at the pumps. Back in April, gas was pushed from around 1.75 to nearly 2.50, all while crude remained steady. Now, crude is climbing and prices at the pump are falling.

The ONLY reason this is part of the discussion is back in April when prices were climbing, the explanation was that crude prices were rising and refining was declining. Today, refining is still "declining" - that is it is not rising faster than demand - and crude prices are going up, up over $50 (actually, today, 11/10, crude is below $50, but is closer to 50 than 40) and prices on the street are drifting downward.

So, if we are to believe that crude causes rapid price hikes, why are prices at the pump falling? And if crude is responsible for pushing prices up quickly, then why don't prices fall just as quickly when crude proces go back down?

Obvioulsy crude plays a role in pump prices, my point is there are other factors as well - some might suggest those other factors have more to do with manipulation than actual factors. If the factors that push pump prices around are manipulation as opposed to actual factors, then the the prices will rise like a rocket and drop like a feather and the question remains, "why make a gallon for a dollar when you can get away with making a half-gallon for two dollars?"

I expect nothing for free, but I have a model of what happens in the energy markets that has more to do with market control than supply and demand. My model seems to hold true in any energy market, gas, electricity, natural gas, name it. While we are suffering power outages because Edison claims they can't make electircity fast enough, the windmills in Palm Springs are all standing still. Something that should never stop is locked down, why is that? It is because they can sell half for two bucks instead selling one for one. It is entirely possible that that I am completely clueless about what drives prices, but if that was so, then every market that I look at would not behave the same when my model is applied. Sure, the markets are going to _say_ that I am wrong, but the fact remains that they behave exactly as I predict, and they behave that way even when the forces they claim to be at work are not even present. In the gasoline market, the difference in today and last April is the calendar and opposite directions in the movement of the major component of the price swings back in April. Using the market's own explanation of what was driving prices in April conflicts with where prices are going today. But, my model fits not only today, but April as well. I could be completely wrong, but that means the market is lying, but I maintain the market is lying. The end result is the same, but in my model, my eyes are open, if we believe the market, our eyes must remain closed. Take your pick.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of his biggest campaign contributors were from Saudi Arabia and/or other OPEC members. The Bush's made their money in oil so they can't ignore their arab buddies now can they? Iraq was all about making money for Halliburton and Cheney's buddies.

-Bill (remove "botizer" to reply via email)

If they are leased out to JB, Schneider, et al or ar JB/Werner/Orange company drivers or are UNION PROFESSIONAL drivers like YellowRoadway, they are driving legal or pretty close. There are OOs driving legal too...they are usually in specialized areas though, or are exceptionally good business people. No question, if you are making late model chrome wagon payments and hauling brokered dry van freight it's past tough.

I'd love to see the DOT do to the two-log 20 hr 7 day artists what NY State did to people drag racing for money on public streets-take away their toys and ruin them and make them flip burgers. Just a few of them to scare the daylights out of everyone else. The two log artists are crashing and killing people and depressing the freight rates for everyone else. If you can't make money legally-and I'm talking substantial compliance, not work to rule-it's time to do something else or do it differently.

They do not have a constitutional right to drive 20 hours a day 7 days a week.They are not heroes or freedom fighters. They should be stopped and the DOT and Highway Patrol are right to do it. I'm not advocating putting people out of business for minor infractions, I am advocating forcing people who have gone to great lengths to endanger all road users, off the road.

And for the record, MBZ and Peugeot and other foreign diesel cars had zero, zip, effect on diesel prices because their market share is so low. MBZ hasn't sold diesel cars here for the last three or so years! The Cummins/PowerStroke/6.5/Duramax hillbilly wagons burn twenty to fifty times as much...but they have no major effect either. Class 8 trucks, construction, ag, and stationary account for almost all the diesel fuel flow.

And ULSD is inevitable because refineries sell so much of it to Uncle Sugar-who calls it JP-8. Put everyone on the stuff and make the few operators of diesels that don't like it-I hear RoosaMaster pumps don't-refit hardened pumps or add Power Service to every tank. Making ALL diesel pumps go to a hardened config would create a good aftermarket business and give us 90% of a multifuel engine at reasonable prices.

LTL companies are still largely union. TL companies like Schneider, JB, Werner, et al, are nonunion but they own their tractors and trailers, they also have OOs under lease. A condition of lease is you have satellite (Qualcomm) terminal installed. They track you pretty carefully and while you can pull a few minor shenanigans, they will catch and fire gross violators. Company trucks are watched much closer. What keeps 'em in line, more than the DOT, is the insurance companies and the specter of huge liability. There are too many people in manufacturing states who would dearly love to bend JB and especially Don Schneider over for unionbusting for them to get a jury pool that wouldn't kill them. And can you blame them? (Let me rephrase that-could normal humans blame them??)

Oil is actually close to $47.00 today, not $40. Back in April it was under $40 and street prices were higher than today.

Get over it. That is false and misleading.

A driver who drives a company owned truck and receives a salary is an employee. He is not an IC. JB, Schneider, and others own tens of thousands of tractors and have employees that drive them. The IC's own (or 'are buying') their tractor. No really big company is all O/O.

You are as so often the case very very very wrong. JB owns a lot of tractors and trailers. Call 'em up and ask. Schneider the same. Leased tractors are usually easy to tell because they aren't the same as the fleet ones. Schneider's are all Century Class Freightliners except a few Argosys for the beer runs. JB had "the bus" (Navistar cabovers with setback axle) for a lot of years, I think they are now conventionals as well.

It's astounding how you can be so wrong...but funny too because in this case all anyone has to do is pick up the phone and call JB, Swift, Schneider, CFI, and tell 'em you wanna be a company driver...they'll tell you all about their tractors in glowing terms and on their dime. (Schneider is at 1-800-44-PRIDE)

I know a lot of truckers....and I have a current CDL with all endorsements except passenger (because I haven't taken the second driver test in a bus.)I drove trucks for years. Some truckers are fine people and some are total dumbasses, freaks, and s******ds, same as any other job.

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