Out of curiosity I just checked NADA residual on my current '00 E430 Sport vs. the residual forecast when it was new.
MB Credit calculated the residual in 02/00 at $34,210.40. NADA residual TODAY is $32,675, and there are four more months to go on the lease, so let's be kind and assume it's only going to depreciate another $2,000. That means MBNA will have lost $3,500 at face value, however it could be much more, because the actual value of this car will be set after it is returned to MBNA and auctioned to a dealer. What MBNA will actually be paid for the car (the actual "residual") depends totally upon what a dealer's willing to give for it at that point in time.
(By the way, these are the figures ALG uses to set their estimated residuals. Theirs is NOT an "educated guess".)
This particular car, barring anything unforeseen, will go back in very good condition with low miles, so they might get a small premium for it, but not likely to be $3,500.
MBNA was flying high when this car was sold. They did not "subvene" (subsidies) the lease payment as it was competitive with BMW Lexus, etc. without market support. They set the lease payments on the car based upon a formula that considered its original capitalized cost, the forecast residual
4 years later and a competitive interest rate ("money factor").
What happens now is the car will be worth thousands less than forecast, thus MBNA will likely have "rented" this car to me at a loss. Their forecast cost of the lease was too low. Therefore, the new cars leased based upon these HIGHER costs of depreciation will have higher lease rates, to ensure MBNA a profit. However, MBNA will have to "subvene" the lease if it turns out to be uncompetitive with BMW, Lexus, Jaguar, etc. and they start to lose volume. The only other alternative will be for dealers to discount more heavily, which will cut into their already thin 7% margins...not going to be happy in dealer-land.
This very bad news for MB. If they end up having to subvene it can mean, as many other mfrs have learned, to hold volume they have to sell at a loss, which means the more you sell, the more you lose!
How do I know this stuff? Before I retired I was an executive in the US auto industry. I've always liked MBs because they were solid products, the brand represented a gold standard and they held value so well...oh, well, "'cest La Vie"!