I thought the paradox was clear by my Fermi Paradox example.
Do you remember the Fermi Paradox? As I recall, a bunch of rocket scientists were making the assumption before lunch that aliens must exist, when, all of a sudden, Fermi, over lunch, realized belatedly that if they do exist, then there must be some "signal" (or evidence) from them.
That evidence didn't exist. Hence the paradox.
It's the same concept here.
- We all assume cellphone use while driving is distracting.
- We then assume that distracted driving causes accidents.
- But, the belated realization is that there is no evidence supporting this assumption in the total accident statistics (which are reliable).
Even worse, if we believe the studies and the (clearly flawed) statistics on cellphone use while driving, that just makes the paradox WORSE!
If cellphone use is so distractingly dangerous, why isn't it *causing* more accidents?
That's the paradox.