OT: Eerie Predictions Of A Katrina-Type Hurricane

Well said. I would add the following:

- all of these hindsight critics keep quoting the number of days it took the feds to respond in force starting from the minute the hurricane hit (I just heard Wolf Blitzer say "almost a week" as I type this). I watched the thing unfold in real time, and Monday was categorized by relief that the levee system held up. It wasn't until mid-Tuesday that the word got out about the real disaster (i.e., the levee breach) and it wasn't until Wednesday Morning that the scope of the horror was known. Bush addressed the nation that day, the national guard was there on Thursday and by Friday 10's of thousands had been rescued. The politicization of this event has, in my opinion, been the most appalling result of the hurricane.

- I just watched a family refusing to leave their flooded stench filled house and go with rescuers. Add this to the many people I saw interviewed before the storm refusing to leave. How can you help people like this?

Joe, either you just don't get it or you are just being an ass.

Richard

We, as a species, are a particularly arrogant type. We'll rebuild New Orleans, whether it makes any sense or not. As reinforced by the link Patrick provided (and any number of other articles on this subject over the past however many decades), we all knew this could happen. But the Worst Case Scenario never comes, so we go on about our lives knowing that it's a very slim possibility - so slim as to be no chance at all.

Until it happens. THEN, it's an absolute certainty.

San Francisco was demolished 100 years ago, but, hell, that'll never happen again. We rebuilt it. Made no sense, since it likely would suffer another massive earthquake, but the scenery was nice and the weather was mild, so we just put it back up in the same place. Nature hit us big-time with the Clue Bat, but we chose to ignore it. Ever since, there have been dire predictions of another massive earthquake that will cripple the entire region. Won't happen, until it does. But the West Coast is taking more and more steps to survive such an event in a little better state than the first time. (In other words, we KNOW it's going to happen, but we BELIEVE we can outsmart it.)

(9/11, not at all the same, since it was a man-made disaster - our first instinct was to rebuild the towers to "make a statement".)

We can rebuild the levee system to withstand a theoretical Category X storm. We can put in place massive self-actuating, self-sustaining pumps that will keep the streets of New Orleans absolutely dry. But Nature will find a way to slap us silly and prove, yet again, how insignificant our preparations are.

Lightning never strikes twice. (Well, yes, it does... frequently.)

The odds of winning the lottery are incredibly small. (But the odds that SOMEONE wins are so far 100%.) ((The odds that someone without a ticket will win are so far 0.))

Rebuild the city of New Orleans, but do it in such a fashion that the odds of this recurring are far closer to zero. If we're going to do it, we might as well build a city in that location that can withstand everything that just happened - from initial event to failed rescue operations to downed infrastructure. With proper planning, next time - and there will be a next time - we'll be much better prepared.

Meanwhile, I'm loving this game of blame-assessment and finger-pointing. There are still people in need of rescue and bodies to be recovered, but we are now, as of Day Four, busy trying to identify who screwed up the relief effort.

To me, it's like the old question, "Who left the refrigerator door open?"

If the refrigerator door is open, the only answer would be, "We all did."

dwight

No, the thought that New Orleans should not be repaired and abandoned is a stupid idea. One which a LOT of disassociated people seem to like.

You can't. But; they may have a stash of food and water that will last them for 3 weeks. That would not surprise me with some of the old Cajuns. Those guys will go out and trap a rat or a gator and make soup...

Well, crap! I knew I was doing SOMEthing wrong!

That's my whole point. Do it RIGHT this time. Unfortunately I'm affraind that corrupt La. politics will easily get in the way. We have known for many years that things needed to be changed and nothing was done

Another of my points, SOMEon needs to take control. Nagin is certainly no Julliani, but it's not *all* his fault. I've been told that this General Honore seems to be stepping up and getting a handle on things.

Ididn'tdoit,youdidn'tseemedoit,andyoucan'tproveathing!!

I talked to a friend 2 days after the flood that lives in "uptown" New Orleans. He told me (before I heard any of it on the news) that there were armed gangs running the streets, that he had exchanged gunfire with then 2 times that day, that He had went looting also and had packed in a months worth of canned goods. He had gas, phone and running water but all water had to be boiled before cooking or whatever. He lives in a 3rd floor apt, only one on that floor. He has basically barricaded the steps and bolted the door. He is sitting in there with a locked and loaded M16 (don't ask, I don't know where he got it and don't care) hoping that nobody tries to come upstairs. He said he wouldn't hesitate to shoot anyone that tried to get into his apt and harm him or his family. I didn't realize how bad it was till I talked to him. I have been trying to get ahold of him for 4 days now and no answer, his voicemail on his phone is off.. I hope he is well....

Gumby619

Here is a good analogy written by ShamikaServers owner. I don't have the patience to write something this long on this subject...

Originally posted by Oreo[SS],

Evacuation routes? Well this is something that had never really been in place until the last couple years. Once a hurricane becomes a viable threat to the NO area the state issues a recommended evacuation of these areas then steps it up to a mandatory evacuation. Last year we did this twice and learned a lot about the issues we face evacuating a couple million people from South Louisiana. Luckily during this learning period the treats were real but missed these areas. The first evacuation was a complete debacle as 1/3 of the evacuees were trapped in their cars while the storms passed. So the study began and Contra-flow was instituted in the evacuation plan. This effectively makes all access highways and interstates outbound traffic only. This worked flawlessly as the evacuation of NO was complete before the storm came ashore. Yes I said complete which brings use to the next issue.

South Louisiana people have a heritage if not a tradition of riding out hurricanes. There are people that simply will not evacuate no matter what the situation. Most of these Storm riders for a lack of a better term have the means and ability to leave but don?t. What do you do? Well most people would say ?You make them leave?. Ok in a city the size of NO how do you find these people to make them leave? You have about 24 hours before the storm hit and are in the middle of a evacuation where do you get the man power to find these people to ?make them leave?? You don?t and you can?t. These people make there own choices and live or die by there decision. Here is where the next issue take place?

There are thousands of people that basically just exist in New Orleans. Let make this clear right here? I DO NOT mean Black People? I mean there is, as Mayor Nagin put it, ?A class of people? (black and white) that lives in New Orleans that has nothing. They are poor people living in a poverty situation and basically exist from day to day. These people don?t evacuate as most of them do not have the means to do so. They have stayed year after year surviving the storms and going on with life. How do you place a number on these people? This is to me a Huge unknown factor and a major variable in what we are seeing today 6 days after the storm.

So what do you do for the people that can?t get out? Open shelters right? Without an exact number and with the possible threat of water backing up in the city where do you open a shelter? The Super dome has been a shelter from storms for years. It size alone allows for a huge number of people to be protected and provides light, water and facilities for those that stay behind. It has always been the place to go. You made a comment about the people staying at the Hyatt. The Hyatt and several other CBD (central business district) hotels have provided shelter for city officials and yes other people that could afford to stay there. Remember even in times of crisis there is a charge. The city officials staying at the Hyatt is not any different then the president, his cabinet and high ranking military heads sheltering in a remote command center. I think the image of Hyatt is clouding the fact that yes it was better then the super dome but it was also the command center from which the city officials could work, communicate and see the surrounding areas. The removal of these people before the people in the dome was a matter of viability to allow the people in charge (infrastructure) to continue to work through the situation and try to provide information and details of the current situation. Having been in the USMC Death I?m sure you understand this method of process. Sure there may have been some of those people that were affluent and got out but overall it was a solid decision. Mayor Nagin has not left New Orleans he has been there day in and day out in the same conditions that rest of the people of New Orleans have endured. No power, no power, limited food and no facilities. What you hear in the interview is a man that has witnessed every minute of this and has reached his point.

So the hurricane is coming, mandatory evacuation orders are issued, the city has evacuated and many of those that couldn?t head to the Super dome and/or other shelters to weather the storm. The storm actually missed New Orleans by 30 miles and passes to the east which in itself (believe it or not) is a blessing. The pumps are pumping, the winds are blowing and the crowds have been searched and are now inside the safety of the Super dome. Everything so far has gone to plan and procedure. The storm passes and at this point it looks as if we may have dodged the bullet once again but then it happens. The winds on the western side to the storm are blowing across Lake Pontchartrain and the surge of the waves is starting to top the levees. At least one of the pumps is having over heating issues and several others are failing. The water is coming in and now there is at least one levee breach allowing the Lake to flow into the city of New Orleans which is 7 feet below sea level. This is the point at which Katrina?s issues became unique and unlike any hurricane to ever ravage the United States. Had the levees not failed the relief effort would have rolled in and the cleanup would have started. The people in the Dome would have headed out and the normal process of hurricane procedure would commence. But it couldn?t. With the city flooding there was no where to setup base camp for the effort. The waters were rising and the basic designs of many building were starting to show their flaws.

The super dome for instance has generators but these generators only allow for basic lighting. In most construction where are the generators placed? Ground Level, which in this case became flooded. In hospitals where are the cafeterias? 1st floor and again with the hospital generators became flooded. I really think we will see some new designs for these buildings in the future.

So now we have several feet of water flooding in, the dome of jammed with people and so is the convention center which apparently NOBODY realized it had people in there and the people that have stayed behind are now headed to the dome to escape the rising waters.

Chaos is breaking out and the NO police dept as well trained as they have to handle situations they were never prepared for. In there efforts to help people they are being fired on. Here they are trying to maintain order and assist and in return they are being fired upon. The situation is getting out of hand and our top governmental leaders are holding press conferences to update us about how things are going.

Communication has been one of the biggest issues during this whole ordeal. On Tuesday they were discussions of Martial Law but it was never put in place. The department of Wildlife and Fisheries took there enforcement agents and all the boats they had and headed to New Orleans. In a single day (Tuesday) these agents rescued 3000+ people from roof tops and attics. These are people that didn?t or couldn?t leave. That was 3000 people? The WLF department had performed above and beyond any expectations and while doing so were also being fired upon. These guys never gave up and are still working boats to rescue people even as you read this. The Local Coast guard starts air lifting people from roofs with the limited resources they have to work with.

FEMA has not entered the state and we are up to our asses in alligators. The dome roof had several small failures, what was thought to be about

Day three after the largest disaster in the history of the United States and the city of New Orleans and the State of Louisiana are still on their own.

The other issues is the while everybody is screaming New Orleans, New Orleans, New Orleans there are other areas that are devastated and in need of assistance. People are on their roof tops and trapped in attics all over south east Louisiana. This storm didn?t just hit New Orleans it hammered all of South East Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The response from our government was slow, our officials in Louisiana have adapted to situations that have never been experienced before in the history of our country. Our resources and efforts have been exhausted and to a Mayor who had been in these conditions watching as the citizens of his community are dying and the waters are rising utter chaos has taken control it was time to speak up and get somebody?s attention.

There were emergency plans, evacuation routes and shelters in place. But this storm and the subsequent events afterwards surpassed the plans and expectations of everyone. You can?t plan for an event like this. You can only develop ideas, processes and put them into action when needed. Once the catastrophe has happened and the recovery has begun only then can we evaluate the problems and redevelop the ideas, plans and hopefully better prepare for the future.

I don?t see the Mayor playing the CYA card I see a man that has endured events that we can not begin to understand and crying out for help.

I could go on for hours but I realize that this has grown from a couple comments into an essay. My question is why did it take so long for the government response?

On the flip side the Rev. Jesse Jackson has seen fit to grace us with his presents and make this an issue of Black and White. It didn?t take long for the political machine to get rolling on this. Is it not bad enough that people are dying and lives have been destroyed? This type of help we don?t need. Hey Rev how about you spend some time with the WLF Agents pulling people off roofs instead of point fingers and screaming ?It?s because these people are Black?. I think maybe you could get a better picture if you were trying to help a person while your brother is shooting at you from another building.

I?m not going to go any further with the political aspect of this but I do feel that the support, reinforcements and supplies that are now here have come too late.

"Richard" wrote in news:3bGSe.369380$5V4.364186 @pd7tw3no:

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hillside

Richard, I definitely get it. I certainly agree with you in that we all must take responsibility for our decisions and actions, but only an idiot would willfully move somewhere without fully realizing what "goes with the territory" so to speak. For example, if you move down here to SoFla, you'd better be ready to go through a hurricane or two. If you're not ready for that, then go somewhere else.

Sure, every place has its pitfalls; i.e., there is no "Garden of Eden". But that's just part of life. No matter where you live, something bad can happen. My point in being facetious is simply this: Why worry about stuff you can't control? Just enjoy life for what it is.

pawn wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@news.supernews.com:

Amazing. Read this

Obviously you can't. But the ones who wanted help were double victims: first from the storm and aftermath, second from the totally inadequate response from the feds.

Seems "Lord of the Flies" is pretty much spot on.

Patrick '93 Cobra

Exactly. However there appears to be a lot of people making decisions without fully realizing what as you said "goes with the territory". And when someting nasty happens accept the consequences don't look to big brother to bail you out and leave you whole.

Then we are in agreement.

Richard

I think it should be rebuilt... I'd sure miss the French Quarter and the jazz clubs and those pastries!!! and Mardi Gras....

There is no place on earth that does not have a risk for some catastrophe or other. Granted, coastal zones are exposed more than most areas... but it's what, 90 miles more of communities SOUTH of New Orleans... Cajun country. Fantastic food. Great partying!

Anyone who has ever been there should recognize how wonderful that city is, and the loss if it were abandoned. (It was a haven for me when I lived in Biloxi, MS.) Can anyone imagine abandoning the place they call home?

Should we abandon all those areas where there is risk? I think not. Like many places which have experienced disasters; San Francisco, Anchorage, Crescent City, LA, Galveston, and so many more, New Orleans will be rebuilt, and it should be.

Too many people are armchair quarterbacking the situation, and too damn busy pointing fingers. No level of government can be fully prepared for a disaster this big. Could they have done some things better? Possibly. Should they take a lesson from this and make changes in their disaster plan. Probably. But as anyone who has been in combat knows, all the training, exercising plans, and preparing is supposed to get all the ducks lined up for when they are needed. The it hits the fan and you find out how much was missed, or how much doesn't apply and was a waste of time to work on. you learn how things might have been done better and you include that into the plan for the next time. There is little difference between natural disasters and combat. You go into either, facing an "enemy" who is not using your rule book. So you do the best you can and hope you get it right.

While living on Terceira Island in the Azores, we experienced a 7.6 earthquake. It took three days and nights of non-stop effort to pull together the resources, stabilize the situation , and then begin recovery operations. It was several months before things were somewhat normal again. Something like 90% of that island was leveled. We survived on emergency generators. And we were fortunate. We still had communications, and roads which could be used, and power. And people worked together, pooling food and other resources.

I still stand by my belief that the people are at least in part responsible for their situation. They were warned for decades and did nothing to help themselves. They might still be in a bad situation, but it could have been made better if the had simply heeded the warnings, recognized the risk, and prepared.

Spike

Gad what fools these morons be.... Children are obscene but should not be heard Give me a peperoni pizza... or give me a calzone!

LOL That's a given..... : 0 )

Spike

Gad what fools these morons be.... Children are obscene but should not be heard Give me a peperoni pizza... or give me a calzone!

Hey, sounds like a typical day in Uptown New Orleans :oD The last word I got was that there is a large military presence now and they are stopping every civilian and patting some down. He said it "feels" a lot safer now and says the water is noticably receding.

Here are some pictures...

Not completely, just remember in 3 years when you come to New Orleans to visit Bourbon St. and get drunk on Hurricanes, there are ALL ways armed gangs roving in the Uptown, CBD and Quarter. Comforting...

Joe wrote

What.. the NY Times?

Here's an update on what the "paper of record" recently posits:

• Media recounts of 2000 election show Gore would have won Fla

- proven wrong again and again, papers omsbudsman cannot get writer to recant

• Says one county in Ohio reported 95% voter turnout.. same as above, not true at all

• WEEKS late in reporting on Air America funding scandal

• Says little or nothing about any of the ongoing UN scandals

Just wait on it to all come out. But you wont be here of course... or you'll put your head in the sand and sip the kool-aid.

Meantime...Bush DOES need to fire that idiot, Michael Brown, who runs FEMA

Okay...

We obviously forgot one crucial element in all of this. We desperately need to appoint a Mass Communicaions Review and Report Counsel, whose job it will be to monitor the major news outlets.

For $100,000/year, I'll take the job. Build me an office, put up three 42" plasma screens on the wall, and I'll watch MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News for things the rest of the country sees.

I would have been well-prepared to advise FEMA that there were 20,000 stranded people at the Convention Center, to save them the embarrassment of finding out well after the rest of the world knew.

Apparently, not only do we not read newspapers, we don't watch the news on the telly, either.

dwight