{OT:} Interglacial periods and the approaching Ice Age

Apr 17, 2007 1 Replies

Well, this is intersting, and what I based a final paper on for a 2nd year Geology class I was taking.



The only problem was, the research really wasn't there to support my theory as much as it is now.



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Scientist Refutes Notion of Recent Climate as "Uniquely Benign," Sees Evidence of Approaching Ice Age Despite Global Warming



By Kurt Sternlof


Paleoclimatologists agree that during the 10,000 years since the end of the last ice age -- a period known as the Holocene -- Earth has enjoyed a relatively warm and stable climate. During this period human civilizations blossomed into global dominance. The question now is whether another ice age is on its way? And if so, when?



At an international symposium convened by the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory last October, the consensus answer was, "Yes, but not for at least another five thousand years." While that sounds like a simple reprieve, the issue of what the geologic record of past climate can tell us about the future remains both complicated and contentious.



In a paper drawn from that symposium and solicited by Science for its 11 February 2000 issue, Lamont-Doherty paleoclimatologist George Kukla argues that a currently popular interpretation of Holocene climate as uniquely benign is both mistaken and misleading. He contends that the weight of evidence shows that neither has the Holocene been uniformly benign, nor is it without precedent in the geologic past. And if there's nothing unique about our current climate pattern, there's no reason to think glacial history won't repeat itself.



In fact, the geologic record reveals that Earth has experienced an ongoing cycle of ice ages dating back millions of years. Cold, glacial periods affecting the polar to mid-latitudes persist for about 100,000 years, punctuated by briefer, warmer periods called interglacials. The Holocene is just another interglacial that is more than half over, Kukla said.



It turns out that this ongoing cycle of glaciation closely matches cyclic variations in Earth's orbit around the sun, leading many researchers to conclude that orbit drives glaciation. This correspondence between orbit and climate is called the Milankovich cycle, after the scientist who analyzed and popularized it in the 1920s.



"I feel we're on pretty solid ground in interpreting orbit around the sun as the primary driving force behind ice-age glaciation. The relationship is just too clear and consistent to allow reasonable doubt," Kukla said. "It's either that, or climate drives orbit, and that just doesn't make sense."



Although the actual mechanisms that initiate and drive glaciation remain a mystery, evidence suggests that the pendulum-swing to an ice age-type climate may already be underway, Kukla said. For one thing, the configuration of the sun and Earth is fast approaching what it was 116,000 years ago when the last interglacial period ended. And, while the annual mean temperature on earth is now rising -- along with concerns that humanity is to blame -- polar mean temperatures remain steady and ice fields in the upper elevations of Greenland are actually expanding.


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And this is pretty much what I used to support my theory as presented in the paper:



"I feel we're on pretty solid ground in interpreting orbit around the sun as the primary driving force behind ice-age glaciation..."


Finish the article here:



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Also note that this is still a theory, but the 'wobble' of the Earth's orbit is a proven fact.


And here's an interesting graph that shows the previous Interglacial and the present IGP. You can see the IGPs don't last too long:

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But you can also see that the glacial periods last MUCH longer than the IGPs.

We also know that Geologic History repeats itself, and if thei is an indication then the next glacial period would be starting very soon (in Geological terms) and that it will last for 10s of thousands of years.

Let's see how the Global Warming predictions of the alarmists stacks up against this, eh?

The entire article, for those who wish to wade through it is here:

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