Where Have All the Flowers Gone?

Bob,

With all due respect, I think you have made a faulty logical deduction. You equate the decline in posts in rec.auto.makers.vw.aircooled with a decline in the interest in air cooled VWs. I submit that what you are observing is instead the decline of Usenet in general. Usenet was hot in the early days of the the Internet and in fact predates the world wide web, html, and Internet browsers. As we have seen the rise in special interest oriented websites (such as The Samba for instance) we have seen a decline in the volume of postings on Usenet. This is a general phenomenon and is not unique to the air cooled VW community. There has been a marked decline in all Usenet groups (perhaps with the exception of some "adult" oriented Usenet groups) which has been ongoing for at least 10 years. Talk to your average Internet user who has been online for less that 10 years and most have probably never even heard of Usenet, much less actually subscribed to a newsgroup.

Look at the activity over at TheSamba.com or at ShopTalkForums.com and you will see plenty of interest and activity.

I do see some changes. Sources for OEM parts have dried up for the most part. The aftermarket guys are taking up some of the slack but (in my opinion) too much of their wares are aimed at the flash and chrome stuff that kids mainly buy. Some (like Wolfsburg West) have stepped up and are making quality reproductions of stock OEM parts but we need more work in this area. It blows my mind that not one of the larger aftermarket VW parts suppliers (Wolfsburg West, CPI1, Aircooled.net, Mid America, etc) can convince their body panel suppliers to make accurate reproduction fenders in the correct thickness material (one would think they would have the clout). Look at what decent vintage OEM German used fenders and body panels go for in the classifieds over at TheSamba. There is a market there and one day someone will figure out that there are a sizable number of people doing stock restorations (or who just don't like to bolt junk on their prized daily driver) that will pay a premium for OEM (or better) quality parts.

The good news is that there are technological breakthroughs > According to Pete Seeger, young girls have picked them. Every one. >

Reply to
John Crichton
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In drawing your conclusions you've managed to miss a few of those 'logical deductions' yourself, the first of which is that my original message was not about 'interest' as such but numbers. The NUMBER of licensed, running air-cooled Volkswagens is in fact declining, a fact you may confirm for yourself through various records. Try the DMV, your insurance agent or my favorite source, the AAA. (Favorite because it costs less than a pull from the DMV.)

(Not a member of the Auto Club? Can't afford a DMV pull? Then spend an afternoon browsing the archives of your local newspaper. Go back about ten years and check the ads for used Volkswagens then compare that to their latest issues. The numerical decline is an easily verifiable fact. All else stems from that.)

As the numbers decline it is natural for the newbies to congregate at sites which cater to them. (If posted to RAMVA the typical newbie question is liable to be ignored since it's already been answered a hundred times.)

Another error is to mistake 'activity' as a sign of good health. Newbies often confuse activity with progress. Progress would be signs of VW's lasting longer or running better, whereas the 'activity' on the sites you've cited is nothing more than re-hashing the well-established pattern of failure-modes -- the quest for more 'power,' the best way to damage the suspension system, where to put the extra battery needed to power the 500 watt sound system and so forth.

The river is running dry. The fish are congregating into a few pools. It's logical for those in the pools to think everything is jus' swell. The wingless vultures that prey upon VW owners encourage their mistaken conclusion simply because it makes them easier to prey upon.

I believe the long-range and in-depth indicators I mentioned support what I've already said -- we're seeing the end of an era; a whiff of automotive reality.

-Bob Hoover

Reply to
BobHoover

Bob Hoover wrote:

Is the number of licensed vehicles of a model of car which ceased to be sold here in the U.S. oh, bout 30 years ago declining? Damn straight. You bet. What else would you expect. Does this mean that tinkering with aircooled VWs as a hobby is necessarily in decline? No. Of all the drivers of any given make and model of automobile on the road how many look at their vehicle as an interest, hobby, advocation, passion, etc? Very few indeed. There are millions of Ford Tarsuses on the roads today but the interest in the Tarsus *as a hobby* is damn near zero. Thus we establish that the number of cars currently registered does not necessarily correlate to the number of people interested in that car as hobby. Another way to look at this is to think of how many aircooled VW were shipped to the U.S. over the years (just guessing here but let's say 10 million). Now let's suppose that 90% of those cars have met their ultimate fate in the car crusher. Now think of the number of people who might be interested in ACVWs hobby-wise (tens of thousands maybe) versus the 10% (of 10 million) left. I think we have a fairly high cars/(number of people interested) ratio. Enough in fact that you can still find plenty of decent Type 1s in the kilobuck range and less (depending to some extent on where you live). What we are witnessing is that the majority of these cars are coming off of the road as daily drivers, which isn't a totally bad thing as the longer any given vehicle is on the road daily the more likely it will be taken out in a major accident.

The very fact that kids can afford to purchase an ACVW, cut it up, install the latest boom-thumper stereo and otherwise mangle the car beyond recognition is a testament to the fact that old VDubs are still

*relatively* plentiful. When is the last time you saw some kiddie chopping up a '34 Morgan Super Sports Aero? Not in the last 30 years I suspect. They are too scarce which is reflected in their price. Now understand, every time I see a classic (pre-67) VW turned into a pan scrapping abortion my heart drops. There's another car that won't be around to show future generations what these machines were like. When you can't find a down on its wheels rusting project car for less than $8k you'll know the kiddies have turned the excess stock of VDubs into scrap metal and you'll be left with nothing but "serious" collectors, which will be a shame since a lot of guys without the dough will be shut out. We ain't there yet and I suspect we have maybe another decade or so.

Let's also not forget that VDubs were *always* attractive to what you may consider to be "low quality" enthusiast (and I would probably agree with you assessment). Their ready availability and low cost has always made them popular with teenagers who want to express their individuality by mangling their auto into a barely functional piece of junk. This is not a new phenomena.

So, the ACVW community is drying up as evidenced by the declining post volume in ramva. Or, if you don't buy that then it is drying up as evidenced by the hotbed of activity over at TheSamba.com. Tell the truth, you're a glass is half empty kinda guy aren't you?

So what, we all commit Hari-Kari? You are right though. At some point in the future, there will be no more aircooled VWs. Not to mention that the Sun will one day turn into a red giant and engulf the earth's orbit or that the Universe will one day die a heat death as entropy wins out. So, why bother with anything?

I will agree that the ACVW community is entering a new phase. ACVWs have become a somewhat rare sight on the road and probably most of the remaining vehicles are no longer used as daily drivers. However, we are still in somewhat of a golden era where a guy with an interest can find a car and fix it up (to whatever level of restoration he might desire) for a reasonable amount of money. Let me relate a little personal experience. My first car was a mid 60's Bug in the early 1980's. After fixing that car up to be a driver to get me back and forth to school I got another Bug and got it back into shape as well. I had zero interest in getting increased performance out of these cars and I certainly didn't want to tart them up with flashy chrome thingies or paint jobs. All I wanted to do was to get the cars back to as original a state as I could afford. In the mid 80's you could buy aftermarket "performance" parts (at least half of which was junk) or you could buy aftermarket repro stock parts (mainly from J.C. Whitney ) of which probably 70% was junk. No decent replacement running boards (thin crap from Brazil). No decent replacement bumpers (once again, thin crap from Brazil). Crappy rubber seals, etc., etc.. When I got back into VDubs (around 2000) I found that you could actually get decent quality repro parts for most items *if* you are willing to pay the price. Back in the 80's there were still some OEM parts laying around in the occasional dealer's parts bins but unless you were lucky enough to know one you weren't likely to find them. Today with the internet and eBay, TheSamba, etc. some of those NOS parts are finally finding their way back into the hands of someone trying to fix up a project car. Of course the flip side of that is that market prices have been driven up somewhat (like they say, there's no such thing as a free lunch), but I'd rather have more expensive NOS parts that I can actually purchase than cheap NOS parts slowly turning to dust in some forgotten box.

Honestly Bob, I have read most of your sermons and deeply respect your opinions on things mechanical and life in general but when you look up "curmudgeon" in the dictionary it's got your picture right next to the entry (that's ok, the world needs curmudgeons to keep us straight).

Reply to
John Crichton

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This helps clear things up. You're obviously looking at a picture of someone else. I am not an 'enthusiast,' I've never viewed automotive mechanics as a 'hobby' and I do in fact drive my '65 bus every day, or at least, whenever I need to go someplace, be it Alaska or just down to the store. (My latest jaunt was to the 'New Fremont' mine site NE of the prison in Chuckawalla Valley. Try to find THAT on a modern-day map :-)

-Bob Hoover

Reply to
BobHoover

I guess here:

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Reply to
Michael Cecil

What I'm lucky to see is a lot of beetles still being used primarily as daily drivers. Lots of my customers have never gone to a show, or care for more then just beingable to drive their VW's.

Unfortionatly the phase i'm seeing is everyone on the net in the VW community has nothing better to do then attact each other and put down what others are driving.( ie late modles and supers and bays are fat chick)

You can't even go to a show without hearing people bust on the restored VW's no matter if they were personally done or by a professional.

This was once a great site for technical information to help each other with what ever VW we have. It seem to bring more enthusiam to the hobby but with all the personal attacts even over petty things like spelling mistakes people make when posting it seems to be killing it.

Mario Vintage Werks resto.

Reply to
Kafertoys

Once again what you are seeing is more a feature of the internet, not something unique to the VW community. People on the internet feel very safe and anonymous sitting at home in their comfy chair behind what may or may not be their real name. They will use language and treat people in ways that they would never do face to face.

In fact, I have noticed that the use of "foul" language in what in the past would have been considered inappropriate situations is on the rise. Just look at any of the "reality TV" programs to see what I am talking about. I think this is because many people use this sort of language on the net and become desensitized and end up using it out in the real world. Don't get me wrong, I am no prude when it comes to colorful language. In the appropriate situation (like in the garage right after I've have had a wrench slip and bust up a knuckle) I can cuss a blue streak that would make an old sailor blush. But I would never use that kind of language just out in the general public. This is not the case with a lot of the younger generations today. I'm not that old, (41) but I can definitely tell a difference between what you might hear just walking down the street today versus the same situation 20 odd years ago.

The >> I will agree that the ACVW community is entering a new phase. ACVWs

Reply to
John Crichton

.....You might want to take a closer look at the activity levels at STF and thesamba.com as they're in decline as well compared to 2 or 3 years ago. I agree with Bob H. that there is a general decline at least here in the US in numbers of aircooled VW's. It's apparent everywhere that you look. I drove from NY to Florida and back last May and saw only a handful of them on the road. And that includes more than a week of driving around the Orlando area. This wouldn't have been the case five years ago. Ever go to any ACVW shows? I do occassionally and the attendance numbers are way down and there are fewer shows than just a few years ago. The numbers of aftermarket suppliers and the even smaller number of OEM suppliers are in steady decline. ACVW repair shops are now virtually nonexistent in many regions and some of the few that remain are only doing it as a holdover supplement to the their bread and butter import car repair business. I only see a handful of aircooled VW's on the road here in an upstate NY community of about

200,000 that had dozens out and about during the summer months as recently as maybe five years ago. I really don't mind that there aren't many cars like mine on the road but it worries me that in future years, it'll be difficult to purchase the parts that I'll be needing to keep it on the road.
Reply to
Tim Rogers

John Crichton wrote in news:QXnlh.332340$1i1.213366@attbi_s72:

Damnit it would bring a tear to my ghostly eye if my obituary had the above quote in it :-)

Retro

Reply to
Retro

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