Re: Electric cars, cheap

If you're saying that cars don't convert most of the energy of gasoline into heat, you'd better get yourself another buzzer. Yours is broken.

I have to commend you on your remarkable ability to pass out misinformation with utter conviction.

Electric cars don't convert the battery output with 100% efficiency. The batteries turn AC line power into waste heat while charging. I have to commend you for being so ignorant of reality.

There isn't enough public data on EV battery life to include it as a loss in the calculations.

Empirically Lithiums in laptop batteries don't last nearly as long as an ICE vehicle. I see a wide variation in the remaining capacities of the 5+ year old battery collection of my second-hand laptops. One runs only ten minutes. It's in now so the better ones can stay somewhat below full charge where they are said to last longer.

My experience, which I can't quote here, with field-returned Lithiums from ambulances agrees pretty well with this:

jsw

EIA says average transmission losses in the US are 7%. (Wikipedia says the same thing -- 6.6%). Round-trip charge/discharge efficiency for a high-efficiency Li-ion battery is 85%.

You've lost 22% right there. And there are turbodiesels that have produced 50% -- comparable as an extreme example to the 60% combined-cycle generators from GE and Siemens.

I don't think there's any contest; not if you're looking at the most efficient technologies of both types, and sticking to ones that could be practical. Remember, those combined-cycle generators are natural-gas only. There will be a limit to the percentage of them that will be in use.

Most of the escitement over EVs comes from their potential within a system of alternative energy sources. As long as we're burning a fuel we could burn in an IC engine, or as long as we're burning coal, EVs have little to recommend them

They're an extremely developed technology. One thing about them that isn't often thought about is that they can operate at peak flame temperatures roughly twice those of a turbine. So piston engines start out with a vastly higher Carnot efficiency than gas turbines, and gas turbines never catch up in the efficiency department.

At best, the round-trip, charge/discharge efficiency of a high-efficiency Li-ion battery is 85%. The loss can be equated to the internal resistance of the battery, which is low for Li-ion, but it still loses 15% between charge and discharge.

And that doesn't count storage loss -- which also is low for Li-ion, but not zero.

Right. But just looking at efficiencies with a new battery, between transmission/distribution losses and charge/discharge losses, you're looking at something like 22% loss.

Are you going to provide a checklist, like for taking off in an airplane?

Ok. Now think about the kind of people who would participate in a Leaf forum. That's your market universe. Now, how many car buyers does that project to, if every one would buy a car? For chrissake, they slashed the price and now they're selling only a little over 1,200 units per MONTH! A big car company can't make money with volume like that. That's for little companies, like Tesla, that charge $100,000 per car.

When you have toggle switches for determining where the generator output goes, and things you swap in and out, you're talking about an enthusiast's machine -- like my favorites, with no doors or windows, A/C, or, usually, heaters. You can find enthusiasts for anything that's different. Look at the cricket with wheel pants that Banquer was promoting. There was one of those Corbin Sparrows in my town about

But you know what? Not another one showed up in town. And I only saw one other one, anywhere.

They're selling roughly the same number as Leafs and Tesla S's. So Nissan is doing great, say the enthusiasts, and Tesla is going gangbusters, but Chevy is sucking wind.

See how the enthusiasts shape the narrative? It's all baloney. They're all selling about the same number of cars. But none of them are selling enough EVs to hold the piss of people who are buying ICE cars.

It's the same as the others.

I think you're talking about an unsaleable car. There are a mllion of them out there.

Who is us? All the people who buy 300hp pickups but secretly want 60hp EV conversions and can't find any of the hundreds that have been available for years? All the people who can't google this website to mention just one?

LOL Still waiting for those balls to descend eh? Too goddamned chickenshit to just admit to silly self defeating exaggeration.

I understand that as each of your crackpot ideas is shot down, you merely make up new non sequiturs.

The main things you've shown are that you refuse to accept reality, and that you prefer to blame the problem on everyone else, usually in juvenile sexual terms.

A few of the things a Volt can do: Exists and can be purchased in this dimension. Can go 100mph. Can accelerate briskly on an uphill highway ramp. Can pass respectably at highway speeds. Can be reviewed by thousands and receive an overwhelmingly positive response. Can be warranted for 100k miles. Can automatically and nearly invisibly bring an ICE online as required. Can be financed or leased. Can replace its similarly sized and priced ICE only cousins without fuss. Can regulate its cabin temp automatically. Can regulate its battery temp automatically for the best chance of reaching their 10 year 150k mile design life. Can provide skid and traction control. Can test to the highest safety standards and qualify for the lowest insurance rates. Can be serviced by a nationwide dealer network. Can even report its SOC, remaining oil life, tire pressures etc. to a smart phone.

The Selfflagellationmobile that you IMAGINE you could kluge together from a donor car in between posting all this nonsense couldn't do a single one of those things much less 99% of them or any of the rest of what a Volt or any other factory EV can do. Only in the mind of a crackpot could an economy 60hp garage built Frankenstein conversion compete with a factory built car.

This equipment and assembly lines are next to Gunner's "electronics" shop and backhoe I suppose. That's what great about imaginary things. When they prove to be stupid you can just change them to something else.

All the invented things here are coming off your keyboard, including the idea that somebody who spends way too much time on Usenet disputing reality and defending figments of his imagination, can disguise his lack of funds by writing ROI over and over.

Given that you've become obsessed with defending your crackpot ideas, it seems unlikely that the time will ever be right. You might want to study Gunner's "ROI" on banging out senseless Usenet posts.

BUT.... The Volt was 'sposed to be The Great Bridge For All Niches, right?

I think the Leaf IS outselling the Volt right now, and total sales have edged out the Volt, but, basically, yer right, they are neck and neck. The Q is: Why idn't the Volt doing MUCH better than the Leaf, given its greater versatility, and relatively close price point? The recent April CR has the Leaf at $35-37K, the Volt at $39K.... which is ree-dickuhlus. The Leaf should be AT LEAST $10K cheaper than the Volt, just on GP....

Yet, the shitty li'l econobox Prius c is proly outselling ALL EV's put together!! Reason? Price. And range. So, if you don't like a shitty li'l get-me-TF-home genset, make it bigger -- and not for range of course, but top speed, accel. Also, there is nothing "inherently seamless" about the Volt genset.... ANY genset can be made to kick in seamlessly -- OR with a toggle switch.

And as far as toggle switches go (heh, and checklists... lol), "toggle switches" is a mixed use: Literally, to illustrate how conceptually simple all of this is (well, for the non-Kiddings, whose only talent is fellating while talking/typing). And metaphorically, to illustrate that however seamlessly carmakers want to make a toggle switch operation, it's still just a toggle-switch operation, and we shouldn't be banged up the ass for it. Toggle-icity = simplicity.

As far as narrow niches go (leaf forums): The Volt was supposed to address that, right? Apparently it dint. glibKidding thinks he has all the marketing answers, and I'll put a Kidding on him: GM marketing people are smarter than Kidding, right?? Well, everyone is, except Simpleton Plimpleton. So why aren't THEY coming up with all of Kidding's glib bullshit shmooze... well that's why.... lol

By definition, The Market is the sum of all niches. So create a strategy where you can hit all the niches -- or at least all of them within a general large-ish sub-market. That strategy would be a mix'n'match battery pack/genset size, without all the NASA bullshit -- which, btw, would not be noticed by anyone except those like kidding who jerk themselves off in owner's forums. And yeah, do the NASA bullshit for the philistines like Kidding out there.

If the mix'n'match could ever graduate to true swap-ability, even better. A realistically priced Leaf with a get-me-TF-home 20kW genset would give me a chubby. You might want a 60 or 80 kW genset. Sheeit, they provide ice car platforms with 4, 6, 8 cylinders, incl super/turbo, right? So what's the diff??

Again, a get-me-TF-home genset is for the all-electric crowd who dudn't want to sweat. I think that's a significant niche. Mebbe not Prius big, but way bigger than the current Volt/Leaf.

If you're saying that moving electricity around and converting it creates loses, I already knew that. Everybody knows that. I have to commend you on being adamant about the obvious.

My simple point was that automobiles with IC engines convert most of the fuel it's using into heat instead of work. Let's talk about that. I'm not talking about electrical line loses or the amount of fuel it takes to transport a gallon of gas - that's your thing. My guess is that your buzzer is fine but your trigger finger is way too twitchy.

The first 20 kW genset (Generac) I found weighs 430 lb.

Back when they were planning marketing for the Volt, in the mid-2000s, they probably expected a much stronger economy and much higher gas prices in 2013. That's all it would take, IMO.

As it is, as I've said before, Chevy is between a rock and a hard place in the market. It's hard to tell what prices are going to be across the board: all of the EV builders except Tesla and maybe Toyota, with their plug-in, are involved in a price war. You can lease a Leaf now for what, $199? Holy cripes.

A continuing reduction in fuel prices probably would kill EV sales for years to come. World fuel markets probably will keep liquid fuels from crashing but the bets are off on natural gas. That's going to depend on politics. The supply is there.

We're going around and around on this; I'd like to wrap it up by re-stating something I said earlier. The EV cars being marketed now are testing the markets for acceptance of an electric vehicle that has the amenities and performance of a regular ICE car. There are several segments being served with electics, but they're all in a competitive performance and amenity category with comparable ICEs.

Unless something unexpected happens and gas goes over $5/gallon, that's where the market will be. There is no market for enthusiast or hobbyist cars and there probably won't be. If gas prices stay low, the EV marketers will struggle.

Customers understand the power options. on ICEs. That's the difference.

Didn't I provide a link to Carnot Efficiency?? lol

But, having said that, a kind of rule-of-thumb for these car chargers is 1.3 kW for 1 kW worth of charge. Wow, dats a perty hefty loss..... And the fact that you have to cool these batts while in operation doesn't bode well, effic-wise.

As I stated elsewhere, you would proly also have to factor in a net-net-net utiilization ratio, starting with the energy it takes to get shit out of the ground, the mfr'g processes, etc. AND the life-cycle of batts.

The pisser might be, that while electricity is theoretically 100% efficient, and fuel engines are a theoretical MAX effic of 60% (with max half of that realized), it could be they both wind up being perty close. The analysis would have to be pretty detailed.

Cars that could burn #6 fuel or residual oil (no fractionating whatsoever) would have a huge advantage in this regard. #6 berlers are 50% cheaper to operate (fuel-wise) than #2 berlers. No free lunch, tho, cuz the equipment (and permitting, etc) is also more expensive for #6.

As I mentioned to Ed, we sposedly have 3,000 years worth of methane sitting congealed on lake, ocean floors, theoretically requiring one long straw to suck up. Dudn't get energetially more miserly than that.... and proly once started, the methane would propel/suck itself up! NOW we're talking Free Lunches!!!!

Heh, then you can kiss electric cars g'bye for 3 millenia.... lol

Show some real numbers, twitchy bitchy.

Boy, it looks like I have stumbled into a nest of crazy old coots that have no concept of post trimming. I'm not going to attempt to take on all of the endless, random, thoughts ricocheting through your brain. I can only make one point at a time. The reality is that cars are notoriously inefficient machines. You guys don't care because you think the world has a glut of cheap energy. Now I know for sure that youse guys are nutz. :-)

If you're saying that cars don't convert more than 51% of the fuel burnt into heat, then I won't bother trying to convince you that this is not true. I have no problem with you believing this. Go with God.

So are electric generators fueled with fossil fuel.

It's getting cheaper, too. BTW, we haven't seen your figures on net thermal efficiency for a fossil-fuel generator, nor the net output from fuel through transmission and distribution.

I'll give you a hint: It's within a few percent of the most efficient turbodiesel automobiles. Factor in charge/discharge IR^2 losses in charging and discharging the most efficient batteries, and it's lower than those turbodiesels.

Next argument?

You ain't seen nothing. A couple of EA's previous posts mentioned mining the atmosphere for carbon, enabling widespread use of carbon fiber. He did that to "prove" that EVs could "easily" be half the weight and cost! He just keeps firing this stuff out in a bizarre attempt to distract from the colossal fail of his central premise: that car companies are catering to the ignorant masses, thereby denying him the chance to pay $20k for a one ton Volt... sometime in the future.

So do fossil-fuel electrical generators.

At the output shaft, they're 10% - 15% apart, using the very best generating turbomachinery. And then you have transmission and charge/discharge losses.

You apparently didn't read the rest of that chapter.

This is your argument not mine. I'm not commenting on your facts and figures and ideas. If we can both agree that cars are inefficient machines, then I'd say we're in total agreement. Yay! We're all happy now! :-)