I never said it was the ONLY factor. I'm saying that it is the most visible factor. Look at what's gone on in the past 18 months. Supply & demand have NOT varied in a way that was proportional to the size of the price swings we've seen. Instead, the oil companies have used an indirect measure as an excuse to ratchet prices up and down. Meanwhile, absolutely NOTHING has happened in the Middle East which would affect oil production. Nothing.
My suggestion is to get the "civilians" out of the oil futures game. Their presence is absurd.