For obvious reasons, manufacturers keep their plans for future incentives a
closely guarded secret. In most cases, manufacturers do not determine their
next set of incentives until the results of any current incentives are
apparent so people at the manufacturer's regional/area/zone office and
dealers do not know until the manufacturer announces them. Manufacturers
take into account dealer inventory, vehicles in-transit, and future
production scheduling when determining incentives.
Most incentives run for 2 or 3 months and tend to be tiered so that they
increase as the dealer sells more eligible vehicles. You can look at
Automotive News to see current incentives and their duration. You will
generally get more money towards the end of an incentive period.
A dealer just told me that a new incentive comes out every month. And I've
heard that the best bargains are usually had at the end of a quarter when
they need the vehicles moved to improve the numbers for the quarter.
Is this true?
Furthermore, does anyone here have a sense of any sort of /trend/ among the
incentives? I hear things like "in the summer" and "in june" from my
friends, but would like something a little more solid.
Unix users who vehemently argue that the "ln" command has its arguments
reversed do not understand much about the design of the utilities. "ln arg1
Some incentives run for 2 or 3 months, some run only 1 month.
Toyota motor sales does not base incentives on quarterly sales figures.
a tracks month to date sales, year to date sales, and MTD and YTD sales vs.
same period last year.
That said, your best bargains will tend to be on the second working day of
the month, which is the month end close.
Incentives for a particular series, i.e., Camry, Sienna, Corolla, etc., will
be best at the end of the model year immediately preceeding a complete
redesign, next best before the end of any model year. Overall incentives
will tend to be best at the end of the calendar year.
If you're looking for a good deal and can wait, buy in August or December.
I did and I have and nobody knows anything.
Anyway, assuming the current street price for the Sienna is 20k (So
Calif) - what would be a good guess, based on say past performance, as
to the price in August and the saving for waiting 3-4 months.
I'm definitely in the market!
Are we talking hundred of $ or 1-3 thousands?
To be honest, I have not priced a new Sienna lately but I imagine that the
street price is more than $20k.
I doubt if there is $3,000 markup in most Siennas so I doubt if you will get
that much of a discount. My guess is $2,000 discount at the most.
20k net after 1k rebate + tax lic etc. Had two offers at about 20,500
but I'm holding tight in light of the TV ad.
So if the rebate goes from 1k to 2k in the next week or so when the
current rebate expires - you anticipate 1 or 2k additional drop by
What are the chances that Toyota will change to NO rebate? <GRIN>
Until recently I have not followed Toyota activities - or anybody else
for that matter. Is there more than a 50% chance that I may save an
additional 1k by waiting 90 days til August? I would like to buy asap
but not at any price.
My guess is that the total rebate in August will be in the neighborhood of
$2,000, not $2,000 more than it is now.
You can look up manufacturer rebates at edmunds.com. Current rebates on the
Sienna in my area is $750 or 3.9% APR. I think rebates will go up over this
amount in August.
On the negative side, there will be fewer vehicles to choose from so you may
not get the model/color/option combination you want.
My taste is quite simple - bare CE model with cruise cont. (option
#1) and Silver.
Thanks for your input. I guess the new rebate will make me pull the
trigger - either in a week or in August.
What would you or anybody do?
That is one of the problems of buying cars used. You are in reality buying
something that some body else not longer wanted for some unknown reason. In
addition they have mileage on them and one can never know for sure how the
car was used or abused or whether it was maintained properly, or not. Just
hope you don't get one of the crappy Toyotas, even if you do buy one used.
If you are going to keep a vehicle for 10 years, then my recommendation is
to wait until the model year winds down , which is in August. The risk you
take is that a basic model may or may not be available at that time.
If you are going to trade in 3 or 4 years then you may as well buy at the
beginning or middle of the model year cycle.
As an example, kbb.com lists the private party value for my zip code:
A 2002 Sienna CE with 49,000 miles and no optional equipment at $11,515 and
A 2003 Sienna CE with 49,000 miles and no optional equipment at 12,695
Theoretically, both could have been purchased in September of 2002.
The only variable in that hypothetical comparison is model year, which
results in a private party difference of $1,130. Assuming that the
purchaser saved $1,130 on the 2002 Sienna over the 2003 Sienna in September
of 2002, there is no real savings (other than the value of the $1,130 over 3
years) if both of those vehicles were sold today. Over 10 years, the
difference in value between model years will narrow significantly so 1 year
difference in model year will probably be less than the $1,130 acquisition
difference so the up-front savings is worth it.
I see. You're explanation might better go like this, IIUYC: If you're
planning on getting rid of the car soon, then make the model as late a model
year as you can, so that you are not in effect selling a car that seems 1
year older than it needs to be. If you're holding it a long time, then it
won't matter one way or the other.
When selling it in 2006, a 2005 car might be worth $4000 more than a 2004
car. But in 2006 a 1993 car is hardly likely to be worth much more than a
"Well, ain't this place a geographical oddity!
Two weeks from everywhere!"
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